Following a remarkably warm March 2012, we experienced the opposite in the following March which turned out to be the UK’s coldest in 50 years.

All courtesy of a sudden stratospheric warming event which held a -AO/NAO throughout the month.

March 2013

City	Temp. Departure (Celsius)	% Of Normal Precip
London	-1.5	205%
Birmingham	-2.9	132%
Dublin	-2.4	229%
Aberdeen	-2.0	236%
Belfast	-2.4	192%

Thank you SSWE following a disappointing winter 2012-13.

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Following a disappointing winter season of 2015-16, we could see a repeat of 2013 in which March saw colder conditions than what’s typical in January.

Judah Cohen of AER states that we have the potential to see the polar vortex go from record strong back in December 2015 to record weak in this month.

Looks like the models are finally starting to see the tremendous top-down energy transfer within the polar atmosphere.

GFS ensemble 5-day mean

I think the below temp anomaly for the UK should get colder with time.

See the video for today’s discussion.

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