The big story in the past week has been the level of warmth rather than storminess. The jet stream weakened following a hyper active open to the month.

The slacker jet has meant lows have been held largely west of the UK thanks to a more dominant high over Europe. This setup has meant a persistent flow straight NNE from a warm Azores and Africa. Lows and their fronts have sent these warm surges north in waves! Yesterday MORNING indeed saw the highest temp of the month in the Northwest Highlands would you believe. At 5am, Achnagart reported 17.2C.

An unusual mid-December UK max/min for yesterday.

Daily records approached yesterday based on 0900 readings YESTERDAY.

TODAY’s approach on records based on 0900 readings.

ID	City	Country	Current Temp. (°F)	Unofficial Daily / Monthly / Alltime Record (°F)	Margin of Unofficial Daily Record (°F)	Year of Unofficial Daily / Monthly / Alltime Record	Database Length (years)	ID
UMKK	Kaliningrad/Khrabrovo Airport	Russia	50.0	45.9    55.9   102.0	+4.1	1989  1959  1957	70	UMKK
ESCF	Linkoping / Malmen	Sweden	50.0	46.0    54.5    94.3	+4.0	2003  1980  2012	38	ESCF
ESSV	Visby Flygplats	Sweden	48.2	44.6    52.9    91.8	+3.6	2014  1981  1976	42	ESSV
ESSP	Norrkoping	Sweden	50.0	46.4    55.4    91.4	+3.6	2003  1980  1995	39	ESSP
ESOW	Vasteras / Hasslo	Sweden	48.2	44.6    62.4    93.2	+3.6	2003  1989  2005	38	ESOW
ESSB	Stockholm / Bromma	Sweden	48.2	45.5    61.7   105.8	+2.7	2003  1985  1975	42	ESSB
ESOK	Karlstad	Sweden	46.4	44.1    51.8    89.2	+2.3	1998  1995  1989	38	ESOK
ESMQ	Kalmar	Sweden	50.0	48.2    55.4    95.4	+1.8	2003  1980  1993	38	ESMQ
ESGJ	Jonkoping Flygplats	Sweden	46.4	44.6    51.1    92.1	+1.8	2014  1997  1995	38	ESGJ
EGNH	Blackpool Airport	United Kingdom	53.6	52.2    57.2    93.2	+1.4	2013  1981  1988	42	EGNH
ESGP	Goteborg / Save	Sweden	48.2	47.1    51.8    91.4	+1.1	2003  1981  1998	38	ESGP
ENCN	Kristiansand / Kjevik	Norway	50.0	49.3    54.0    91.4	+0.7	1992  2010  1980	53	ENCN
ESIB	Satenas	Sweden	46.4	46.2    64.4    89.8	+0.1	2003  2010  1987	42	ESIB
EGHE	Scilly, Saint Mary’S	United Kingdom	55.4	55.2    71.6    85.8	+0.1	1997  1933  2004	52	EGHE
LIVC	Monte Cimone	Italy	44.6	44.6    59.0    84.2	0.0	1988  1970  1985	49	LIVC
FMMT	Tamatave	Madagascar	89.6	89.6   107.6   107.6	0.0	1999  1980  1980	42	FMMT
ETNS	Schleswig-Jagel	Germany	50.0	50.0    57.2    98.6	0.0	2014  1996  1995	39	ETNS
ESDF	Ronneby	Sweden	48.2	48.2    53.6    91.2	0.0	2014  1981  2000	42	ESDF
EPPO	Poznan	Poland	51.8	51.8    59.0   100.0	0.0	1989  1980  1998	58	EPPO
EPGD	Gdansk-Rebiechowo	Poland	50.0	50.0    61.0    99.0	0.0	1936  1980  1976	61	EPGD
ENZV	Stavanger / Sola	Norway	50.0	50.0    52.5    93.2	0.0	2008  1981  1958	53	ENZV
EKYT	Aalborg	Denmark	48.2	48.2    59.0    93.2	0.0	2014  1998  1987	46	EKYT
EKSB	Soenderborg Lufthavn	Denmark	51.8	51.8    57.2    91.4	0.0	2014  1980  1992	35	EKSB
EKRN	Roenne	Denmark	48.2	48.2    65.8    89.8	0.0	2014  2007  1992	39	EKRN
EKEB	Esbjerg	Denmark	50.0	50.0    57.2    91.8	0.0	2014  2010  1996	39	EKEB
EKCH	Koebenhavn / Kastrup	Denmark	50.0	50.0    54.3    88.5	0.0	2014  1980  1968	65	EKCH
EINN	Shannon Airport	Ireland	55.4	55.4    59.5    87.8	0.0	2014  1997  1984	42	EINN
EGPU	Tiree	United Kingdom	51.8	51.8    68.0    84.2	0.0	2008  1981  2002	44	EGPU
EGPB	Sumburgh Cape	United Kingdom	50.0	50.0    53.6    86.0	0.0	2003  2010  1995	38	EGPB
EGPA	Kirkwall Airport	United Kingdom	50.0	50.0    68.0    78.8	0.0	2013  2010  2007	42	EGPA
EGNC	Carlisle	United Kingdom	53.6	53.6    59.0    88.2	0.0	2014  1994  1989	42	EGNC
EGHH	Bournemouth Airport	United Kingdom	55.4	55.4    69.8    93.4	0.0	2014  1982  2008	42	EGHH
EFMA	Mariehamn / Aland Island	Finland	44.6	44.6    53.6    89.6	0.0	1998  1981  1952	52	EFMA
LFRH	Lann Bihoue	France	57.2	57.4    66.2    99.5	-0.1	1997  1991  1978	42	LFRH
EGQK	Kinloss	United Kingdom	53.6	53.8    60.4    88.2	-0.1	1993  1989  2008	42	EGQK
EYVI	Vilnius	Lithuania	41.0	41.2    57.2    96.8	-0.2	1986  1995  1978	59	EYVI
EKBI	Billund Lufthavn	Denmark	50.0	50.2    68.0    91.4	-0.2	2014  1980  1987	42	EKBI
EGOV	Valley	United Kingdom	53.6	54.0    59.0    92.5	-0.3	2014  1981  2004	42	EGOV
EHVL	Vlieland	Netherlands	51.8	52.2    56.1    89.6	-0.4	2014  1977  2004	42	EHVL
EHKD	De Kooy	Netherlands	51.8	52.3    57.2    94.3	-0.5	2014  1995  1974	42	EHKD
EGFF	Cardiff-Wales Airport	United Kingdom	53.6	54.3    62.6    92.3	-0.6	1987  2010  1974	42	EGFF
EKSP	Skrydstrup	Denmark	50.0	50.5    59.0    92.8	-0.5	2014  1980  1991	41	EKSP
LFAT	Le Touquet	France	53.6	54.5    60.8    96.8	-0.8	2014  1982  2009	41	LFAT
EGQL	Leuchars	United Kingdom	53.6	54.5    59.0    87.8	-0.8	1993  1981  2004	42	EGQL
EGPH	Edinburgh Airport	United Kingdom	53.6	54.5    59.0    87.8	-0.8	1993  1983  1987	42	EGPH
FQPB	Pemba	Mozambique	89.6	90.5   105.8   105.8	-0.9	2002  1986  1986	42	FQPB
EGQS	Lossiemouth	United Kingdom	51.8	52.7    60.1    89.6	-0.9	1993  1995  1979	42	EGQS
VOMM	Madras / Minambakkam	India	86.0	87.1   101.3   113.0	-1.0	1990  1984  1977	48	VOMM
ENBR	Bergen / Flesland	Norway	48.2	49.3    57.2    89.6	-1.0	1992  1973  1975	42	ENBR
EPWR	Wroclaw Ii	Poland	53.6	54.9    66.2    99.3	-1.3	1989  1996  1989	47	EPWR
CWWE	Western Head, N. S.	Canada	49.3	50.7    60.8    95.0	-1.4	2000  1980  1980	35	CWWE
EGPE	Inverness / Dalcross	United Kingdom	51.8	53.4    86.0   104.0	-1.6	1993  1989  2009	42	EGPE
VOTR	Tiruchchirapalli	India	87.8	89.6   100.6   118.4	-1.8	1984  2003  1994	44	VOTR
LFRQ	Quimper	France	55.4	57.2    66.2    97.7	-1.8	1997  1991  2008	42	LFRQ
LEST	Santiago / Labacolla	Spain	59.0	60.8    75.2   104.0	-1.8	1987  1987  1992	42	LEST
LECO	La Coruna / Alvedro	Spain	64.4	66.2    75.2   100.4	-1.8	2002  1998  1991	41	LECO
GCTS	Tenerife Sur	Spain	78.8	80.6    86.0   111.7	-1.8	1996  2003  2014	35	GCTS
FIMP	Plaisance Mauritius	Mauritius	87.8	89.6   107.6   107.6	-1.8	2001  1990  1990	42	FIMP
ETNH	Hohn	Germany	50.0	51.8    57.2   100.4	-1.8	2014  1996  1990	37	ETNH
ENAL	Alesund / Vigra	Norway	50.0	51.8    64.4    84.2	-1.8	1992  2010  1977	42	ENAL
EKRK	Koebenhavn / Roskilde	Denmark	50.0	51.8    56.5    91.6	-1.8	2014  1995  1996	39	EKRK
EKKA	Karup	Denmark	50.0	51.8    55.4    95.0	-1.8	2014  2012  1998	40	EKKA
EKAH	Tirstrup	Denmark	50.0	51.8    71.6    93.2	-1.8	2014  1996  1978	42	EKAH
EHWO	Woensdrecht	Netherlands	53.6	55.4    62.6    97.0	-1.8	2014  1950  1954	41	EHWO
EHLW	Leeuwarden	Netherlands	51.8	53.6    57.2    92.3	-1.8	2014  1994  1987	53	EHLW
EGVP	Middle Wallop	United Kingdom	53.6	55.4    89.6   104.0	-1.8	2014  1981  1985	42	EGVP
EGPL	Benbecula	United Kingdom	50.0	51.8    77.0    79.7	-1.8	2003  2009  1975	42	EGPL
EGPK	Prestwick Airport	United Kingdom	51.8	53.6    57.9    90.3	-1.8	2014  2010  1977	60	EGPK
EGNS	Isle Of Man	United Kingdom	53.6	55.4    59.0    84.2	-1.8	2014  1996  2008	42	EGNS
EGKK	London / Gatwick Airport	United Kingdom	53.6	55.4    68.0   102.2	-1.8	2014  1985  2005	42	EGKK
EGDY	Yeovilton	United Kingdom	55.4	57.2    60.8    97.3	-1.8	2014  2010  2007	42	EGDY
EDDH	Hamburg-Fuhlsbuettel	Germany	53.6	55.4    60.8    99.1	-1.8	1987  1963  1962	54	EDDH
LFRZ	St-Nazaire	France	57.2	59.2    62.6   100.4	-2.0	1987  1990  2007	42	LFRZ
LFRJ	Landivisiau	France	55.4	57.4    66.2    94.1	-2.0	1987  2010  1988	35	LFRJ
EKOD	Odense / Beldringe	Denmark	50.0	52.0    63.9    96.6	-2.0	2014  2012  2003	42	EKOD
EGLL	London / Heathrow Airport	United Kingdom	55.4	57.4    60.8   100.2	-2.0	1987  1976  1949	53	EGLL
EGHI	Southampton / Weather Centre	United Kingdom	53.6	55.6    60.8    95.0	-2.0	1987  1976  2007	42	EGHI
EGDM	Boscombe Down	United Kingdom	53.6	55.6    61.5    94.1	-2.0	1987  1981  1974	42	EGDM
EGAA	Belfast / Aldergrove Airport	United Kingdom	51.8	53.8    68.9    84.2	-2.0	2013  1981  2003	43	EGAA
EFTU	Turku	Finland	42.8	45.0    53.6    89.8	-2.2	1954  1973  2011	54	EFTU
EGVO	Odiham	United Kingdom	53.6	55.9    60.8    95.2	-2.3	1987  2010  2001	42	EGVO
EGDR	Culdrose	United Kingdom	53.6	55.9    69.1    87.8	-2.3	1997  1996  1981	42	EGDR
LFRS	Nantes	France	57.2	59.7    68.0   102.6	-2.5	1987  1996  2001	42	LFRS
KUUU	Newport, RI	United States	51.1	53.6    67.8    98.1	-2.5	2012  2013  2000	35	KUUU
EGWU	Northolt	United Kingdom	55.4	57.9    59.0    99.9	-2.5	1987  1982  1987	42	EGWU
FMEE	Saint-Denis / Gillot	Reunion	87.8	90.5   100.4   107.6	-2.7	2014  1988  1986	42	FMEE
EPSC	Szczecin	Poland	50.0	52.7    59.0   100.4	-2.7	1989  1933  2007	65	EPSC
EGPF	Glasgow Airport	United Kingdom	51.8	54.5    64.4    87.8	-2.7	1993  1989  1987	42	EGPF
EGOS	Shawbury	United Kingdom	53.6	56.3    59.0    95.0	-2.7	1987  1981  2002	42	EGOS
CYQI	Yarmouth, N. S.	Canada	51.8	54.5    60.8    86.5	-2.7	2000  1988  1987	44	CYQI
KACK	Nantucket, MA	United States	54.0	56.8    63.1   100.0	-2.8	1973  1968  2010	66	KACK
EGTE	Exeter Airport	United Kingdom	55.4	58.3    75.2    91.4	-2.9	1987  2010  1981	42	EGTE
EGSS	Stansted Airport	United Kingdom	53.6	56.5    68.0    96.8	-2.9	1987  2010  2007	42	EGSS
EDDV	Hannover	Germany	55.4	58.3    60.8   100.0	-2.9	1987  1940  1964	54	EDDV
LFOH	La Heve	France	51.8	54.7    65.8    97.3	-2.9	1987  2007  2014	38	LFOH
KHSE	Hatteras, NC	United States	69.1	72.0    78.1   100.9	-2.9	1990  1979  2001	58	KHSE
GCXO	Tenerife / Los Rodeos	Spain	69.8	72.7    77.0   106.5	-2.9	2012  1992  1977	50	GCXO
EICK	Cork Airport	Ireland	51.8	54.7    59.9    83.7	-2.9	1993  2010  2001	42	EICK
.
SCVD	Valdivia	Chile	39.2	36.7    32.0    19.0	+2.5	1994  1973  1988	42	SCVD
WAAA	Ujung Pandang / Hasanuddin	Indonesia	75.2	73.0    46.4    28.0	+2.2	1989  2005  1973	46	WAAA
KGNT	Grants, NM	United States	8.6	8.1   -15.0   -23.1	+0.5	1954  2011  2011	47	KGNT
KLIC	Limon, CO	United States	-3.9	-4.0   -23.8   -27.0	+0.1	1996  1998  1984	42	KLIC
ID	City	Country	Current Temp. (°F)	Unofficial Daily / Monthly / Alltime Record (°F)	Margin of Unofficial Daily Record (°F)	Year of Unofficial Daily / Monthly / Alltime Record	Database Length (years)	ID

Thank or blame this years Super El Nino combined with a very strong, cold polar vortex.

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As we head into the weekend and early next week, lows deepen becoming more energetic as the jet strengthens west-east over the Atlantic. It looks as though wind will become more of a feature into this weekend and next week.

Another pulse of very warm, moist air lifts up from the Azores across the UK overnight tonight ahead of the next rain bearing frontal system. This warmth shall lift overnight readings to between 14-16C,. This is expected to threaten the UK’s warmest December night of 15.0C set back in 1994.

GFS sees tonight’s exceptional overnight warmth.

Anomaly

2m temp

Saturday will see another run at 17C. Keep in mind the UK December record high is 18.2C set in 1948.

The front pushes across Northern Ireland later today, western Scotland this evening and it’s likely to linger through tomorrow morning bringing a moderate to heavy persistent rain. Locak, possibly widespread flooding is expected with 2-3 inches over West, South Scotland, England and Wales tomorrow into tomorrow night.

Multiple rain warnings have been posted for the weekend.

Another low sweeps in Monday and this looks to open Christmas week on a rather stormy note.

Behind the front, showers will drive in a colder air mass with gale-force gusts and potentially the return of snow to higher ground. It’s late December after all!!

As we head into Christmas Eve and Day, another front looks to drop into Northwest Scotland and sink south. This thing could present another flood threat as it has a tail extending back into the subtropics and may be held for up to 2 days in one particular region as high pressure will be very strong over the near continent.

A lot of rain expected today through Christmas Day.

Warmest December on record for UK, Western Europe? Increasingly likely based on first 15 days and forecast through remainder of the month.

GFS ensemble 5-day mean 2, temps.

See this morning’s video.

More Monday.

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