The very dry pattern continues through the week ahead but change is on the way towards the end of the work week.
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Following a dry February-March and now April pattern (potentially one of the driest), I believe change coming in May but it’s actually when that change occurs to a wetter theme very much is open to question.
As surrounding waters warm along with the strengthening El Nino, I expect a wetter summer than the previous 2 and something more on par with 2012. I expect heights to lower over Europe and precipitation to increase as we progress closer to the warm season and feedback kicks in from the tremendous heat release over the east equatorial Pacific.
I am a little unsure at this time as to when the true flip to wetter comes as the CFSv2 now has a dry May but sees the wetter June-July period. I still stand by the cooler, wetter summer idea with spells of heat lifting north into the UK from Spain and France but it’s all about WHEN that flip to wetter occurs.
I strongly believe the El Nino and the strip of warm water extending from the Gulf of Mexico to Ireland will trigger some significant rains this summer and the current dry, warm conditions will fool many into thinking a 3rd ‘good summer’ is on the way. I thought it back in 2012 when we roasted in record March warmth.
Check out the latest CFSv2 weekly precipitation for the UK and West Europe. Dry week 1 then wetter week 2 but then has average precip week 3-4.
It shows heights collapsing over the UK week 2 into 3 and 4 as the positive retreats up to Greenland.
The CFSv2 monthly shows it dry.
Then a shift to wetter June and especially July.
Temperature wise it’s looking average, possibly slightly below average.
See today’s video for the discussion.
The official and more fine tuned, May outlook should be available sometime this week. Stay tuned.
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