This seasonal outlook for the upcoming Summer of 2015 for Europe is based on past and current pattern and influences of current and projected sea surface temperatures, El Nino and current state of solar cycle 24.

While the UK experienced only 41% average rainfall during March, the increase in rainfall and therefore soil moisture during the later of the month reiterates my overall thinking with regard to the June-August period.

Even if April is dry, due to the strengthening El Nino, a shift to wetter is likely. We saw a dramatic flip from dry to wet back in spring 2012 which was triggered by warming of the east equatorial Pacific (El Nino).

Current SST anomalies as of March 31.

CFSv2 projected SST’s for June-August

So, based on increased soil moisture late spring, the surrounding SST profile and strengthening El Nino, I believe this summer will be very mixed with spells of wet and dry, warm and cool but compared to the last two summers, the focus of warmth (if any) should be further south (S England, France, Iberia & across the Mediterranean Basin). Further north it’s looking cooler and wetter (Northern Ireland, Scotland, N England, Denmark, Scandinavia). BUT, there’s a chance at a drier and warmer pattern developing during the SECOND half of the season, i.e second half of July into August. This is because of the potential influence of the El Nino which can support wetter first half’s of summer and warmer, drier second half’s.

If you’ve been following for a while, you’ll know how much soil moisture can influence the atmosphere above and because of the wetter end to March and likely wetter April, especially for the Northern UK into Scandinavia, this should support lower atmospheric pressure with stronger westerly influence with frequent lows crossing just north of the UK (between Iceland and Scotland). A stronger Azores high pressure and centred in the more traditional position nearer it’s origin this year compared to June-July 2013, 2014 means a warmer and drier than normal summer for Iberia, western Med possibly extending north through much of France.

How warm?

This means warmth will flex north-south with several visits extending up into the Southern UK where soils should be less wet than further north. Drier soil allow more of the sun’s energy to go into heating and not evaporating but further north it will tend to be cooler with greater chance of cloud cover, spells of rain. Southern England could see 2-4 spells of 3 days or more in the 27-32C range while further north there may be 1-3 spells of 2-4 days, mainly 2nd half of summer where temps range 21-25C. That’s from Carlisle to Inverness.

Don’t get me wrong, there should be spells of warmer and drier extend all the way up into the Norwegian Sea with Northern Ireland, Scotland into SW Scandinavia getting in on some summer sun and warmth but this is likely to be fewer and further between than the previous two summers. I also expect temperatures to be much more moderate compared to 2013 and 2014 due to wetter ground.

What are the models showing?

I believe the CFSv2 has been fairly accurate with it’s upper height anomalies during the past winter and start to spring and I believe it’s close with it’s summer projections.

Notice below that it has average rainfall and temperatures from the entire West of Europe including UK & Ireland but I think it’s average for the UK & Ireland, slightly below up into Denmark, Scandinavia and above average further south into France and Iberia.

CFSv2 Precip (June-August)

Temp (June-August)

A neutral 700m height field supports the above solution!

The Jamstec model shows a warmer outlook but notice it has warmer further south and cooler further north! However, it has a cooler Iberia.

Thanks for reading. Will discuss the above in greater detail in upcoming write-ups and videos.

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Tags: europe summer forecast 2015, featured, official, summer forecast 2015, UK summer forecast 2015