Some brief thoughts on next winter…
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We know that a west QBO, +NAO/AO and solar max leads to a warm, wet and stormy winter here over Western Europe. (last year)
We know that an east QBO, +NAO/AO, weak El Nino and start of a solar downturn leads to a still ATLANTIC driven winter but with spells of snow and cold. (this year)
The MAIN DRIVER however is the ocean and where the warm/cold pools are positioned.
Dec 29, 2014
Dec 30, 2013
For the past 2 straight winters we’ve had a warm North Pacific and a cold North Atlantic. This supports the weaker Aleutian low/stronger Icelandic low and therefore a +NAO. It’s safe to say, based on this SST profile, Europe has seen two warm winters in a row.
Despite the continued and possibly sharper downturn of cycle 24, I don’t like the fact that the models are A) showing a continuation of the warm PDO/cold AMO signal and also a warmer eastern equatorial Pacific which suggests a moderate to strong El Nino. THIS DOESN’T SUPPORT A COLD EUROPE WINTER.
CFSv2 water temps this autumn show the same as above.
Our recent ‘bad winters’ have been supported by a neutral to cold PDO and WARM AMO. The point is, if there’s little change in model SST projections next autumn and next winter then I think we’ll get no wrose of a winter next year if not warmer again.
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