HAPPY ST PATRICK’S DAY!!
The above is current SST anomalies globally.
CFSv2 SST forecast looks like this.
April-June
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June-August
Notice it has a strengthening El Nino with warmest waters shifting into the eastern Pacific while it remains very warm up the West Coast of North America and cold in the North Atlantic. This screams a cooler, ‘westerly’ driven summer. Much like the upper pattern we’ve seen much of this winter, albeit a summer version. That DOESN’T mean a washout nor we can’t get some decent warm spells but likely far less than the previous two summers.
There’s THREE things straight away about the below SST forecast for Sep-Nov I don’t like and don’t want to see regarding next winter here… 1) Stronger El Nino 2) continued warm water over the Gulf of Alaska 3) continued cool over the North Atlantic. LONG way to go but certainly if one was to go with SST projections, the setup doesn’t look particularly impressive for next winter. Looks of study will continue for next winter’s forecast and it’s already started! Stay right here for frequent updates on what I’m seeing.
Based on the above, I cannot disagree with the below CFSv2 700mb projections for the same periods. Looking rather ‘westerly’ this summer and into autumn.
I will of course be looking at current solar status and projections as well as other influences in the coming weeks. Will also be providing a new monthly outlook. The April edition will be released a day or two before the end of March. The official summer 2015 forecast will be coming out April 1. Lot’s more to come!
As I showed yesterday, because of the SST profile between North Pacific and North Atlantic, any positive between the UK and Iceland never holds and the flip between day 0-7 and 7-14 shows this perfectly. This setup at 500mb beyond the upcoming 7 days I think is where our mean heights are heading this summer or at least the June-July period anyway.
See today’s video for more on the above.
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