The wind stream map off MeteoEarth shows just how busy the North Atlantic is today. Four lows are spinning and three are producing hurricane-force gusts.

It’s all eyes on the high building and expanding over Scandinavia as this will turn our flow easterly over the next 24 hours. These chilly easterly winds will pick up through tomorrow and ultimately will push back the front bringing heavy rain today. Eventually, this front gets shoved back out into the Atlantic and cold easterly winds will take over suppressing temps and may bring high ground snow.

We’ve just seen the Arctic Oscillation reach sigma 3 which is actually the 2nd highest in March since 1948. The highest was 1997 which is the year the El Nino soared into SUPER territory. The AO soaring to this level of positive is part of the reason for the lack of cold air over Europe and even Asia.

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Had this been a month or two ago, this would’ve been the biggest cold outbreak of winter by far. It’s a near perfect setup for bringing Siberian air across Europe into the UK. However, a lack of cold in the first place and high angle sun means yes, it will be a chilly spell for sure but not what we could’ve had.

This GFS 500mb height anomaly chart shows that perfect setup where winds blow from Russia to the UK.

GFS shows east winds strengthen as the high strengthens.

According to some models, this expansive, dominant blocking high pattern lingers and starves Northern Europe of precipitation next 15 days while southern areas see big rains, possibly snow in the higher elevations.

GFS surface shows the push back of the front currently attempting to cross the UK and the domination of the high and chilly easterly winds blowing across Europe from Russia all the way to the UK on the underside.

GFS ensemble 5-day mean 2m temp anomalies show a below normal setup for Western Europe but nothing particularly out of the ordinary for March.

Now, before you think I’m spoiling your optimism and flattening your hopes.

Check out this ECMWF ensemble chart that’s strongly hinting at a fairly major SSWE. THIS may provide hope for a cold end to March/start to April.

See this morning video for the discussion.

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Tags: arctic oscillation, blocking high, north atlantic oscillation, scandinavian high, sudden stratospheric warming event