Solar & Persistent Warm Pool In NE Pacific Drives Similar Global Weather Pattern 2 Years In A Row!

Written by Mark Vogan on March 11, 2015 in Rest of Europe, Spring 2015, United Kingdom & Ireland, Winter 2014/15 with 0 Comments

In today’s post I wish to look at the solar cycle, it’s current position and also the last 18 years of early March global SST’s. There is some interesting trends and findings from this study and what I’ve learned from the last two winters which have had strikingly similar SST profiles and mean upper height anomalies.

SST profile for this year vs last year.

anomnight_3_9_2015

anomnight_3_10_2014

Notice how alike they are. Now look at the below mean upper heights for both this past winter and last year. Strikingly similar!

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The abnormal positive extending from west Mexico to Alaska in response to warm ocean anomalies have lead to extreme cold down the eastern side of North America and also forced a stronger than normal diurnal clash which forced a stronger than normal Atlantic jet, likely supressing the NAO firmly positive, enhancing the Icelandic low and upwelling the North Atlantic which in turn allowed for the first back to back COLD AMO since probably the 1980s, maybe late 1970s.

For cold over BOTH the US and UK, you want to see that horse shoe of cold in the Pacific and warm-cold warm in the North Atlantic with low solar and preferably a weak, central Pacific El Nino. This supports more -AO/NAO winters

This is why the UK has seen another more unsettled winter but the EL NINO and strong EAST QBO (opposite last year) has probably helped bring some winter here but Europe was warm for a 2nd straight year.

The reason for the unusually warm North PDO in the first place? Perhaps the max of solar cycle 24.

Credit: Hathaway/NASA

When looking back at all past early March SST’s back to 1997, I see one trend straight away. The Pacific was predominantly cold. Cold horse show with warm tongue in between while the North Atlantic was largely warm.

So, to have a colder winter here, we’re looking for colder not warmer waters off Alaska and down the west side of North America and a warm North Atlantic, but how’s there only a select few winters that we’re cold and only 2 extreme cold winters while ONLY 1 OCCATION saw the North Pacific like it is this year and last (2005). That goes down to the solar cycle and whether it’s at or near a minimum. Or there’s a huge, global impacting volcanic eruption such as Pinatubo.

All recent winters which have brought significant snow and cold all occurred in cold North Pacific/warm North Atlantic periods when the solar cycle was approaching a minimum.

96-97

anomnight_3_10_1997