When looking closely at the SSTA’s globally, it’s actually amazing to see just how alike early March this year is to last year at the same time and how similar the atmospheric setup is in response with extreme cold eastern US and continued unsettled theme over the UK, warm across much of Europe with a lack of blocking over the Atlantic. Be sure to check out today’s video for more on that.

This week will be no different to what we’ve had already, stormy as Monday wears on across the Northern UK, then settled Tuesday, more wind and rain Wednesday before another ridge moves in Thursday. This should herald some relaxation late week into the weekend as the Scandinavian high not only builds strong but also expands west. This literally pushes back Atlantic fronts from sweeping into the UK and allows an easterly to develop.

Some modelling shows a -NAO developing (see below). Models have showed this before and it’s not materialised.

GFS surface charts through the next 7 day period shows the active pattern then relaxation into the weekend as the Scand high builds westward.

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GFS ensemble in it’s 7-day mean 500mb height anomalies shows ‘ridge bridging’ between Canada and Scandinavia but I’m not convinced that this has significant ‘cold’ implications here since the cold pool is positioned over Asia. Let’s watch this.

CFSv2 weeklies ain’t going for the -NAO signal.

More in today’s video.

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