Stage looks set for the UK and near continent to experience some spring warmth.

It’s the squeeze between deep low pressure to the NW and strong high pressure to the SE where winds will blow hard out of the SSW Saturday, driving the warmest air of the year into Ireland, UK and Low Countries.

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In terms of how warm it gets, it very much depends on amount of sunshine. If you get sunshine EAST Inverness, the downslope compressional warming effect off the Cairngorms or Grampians should be maximised and therefore Lossiemouth or adjacent towns on the Moray Coast could get to 17, maybe 18C.

The very front that will bring the surge of warmth Saturday brings a slap of reality again Sun into Monday as colder air returns on it’s backside. The ups and downs of March shall continue.

NOAA officially declares that an El Nino (albeit weak) is here!

Here’s the latest global SST anomalies.

Notice how cold the North Atlantic is, probably as a result of a stronger than normal W-S jet stream and persistent lows churning up colder water from below.

The CFSv2 and Jamstec hold onto this large cold pool through spring and summer.

Based on the projected SST profile, presence of the El Nino and the potential for average to slightly above average precip through spring, I am swaying increasingly towards an average to below average summer temperature wise and average to above average precipitation from Ireland through the UK into the near continent including Denmark.

Wet soil and a world of cooler than normal water to the west screams for a more ZONAL/WESTERLY upper air pattern and therefore low pressure would arguably have dominance, unlike last June-July which had high pressure dominance.

CFSv2 has hinting at this.

Upper means (notice the westerly look)

2m temp anomalies.

See video for discussion.

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