As forecast, modelling is firmly showing a ‘stormier’ pattern for Western Europe which means the return of severe gales, temperature rollercoaster’s and backside SNOW.

Skinny ridges behind these lows will produce some pretty cold, frosty nights with the potential comeback of -10 nights over Highland snow fields.

The early part of Sun night is seen to be one of the first proper ‘cold nights’ with -9 highlighted for the NW Highlands off the ECMWF.

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ECMWF surface shows the deep lows passing to our north but their associated cold fronts will pack a punch.

Here comes to cold slap in the face behind the cold front.

ECMWF really lays down the snows again over Highland Scotland. Not sure how much gets to low levels.

Looking ahead, the CFSv2 provides little guidance with average to slightly above average precipitation now into mid summer.

It shows nothing temperaturewise but on the other hand the Jamstec shows below normal precipitation through spring and summer with cold spring and warm summer very like 2013 and 2014.

Is it possible that we get a 3rd ‘good summer’ in a row?

Let’s look at water temps now vs this time last year and 2013.

The one constant with this year and 2013, 2014 water temps is the colder than normal in close to the UK. What’s interesting is last year saw waters warm ABOVE normal through March and April but there was a continued drier than normal theme  along with that. In 2013 it was dry yes but because of the -NAO we saw a very cold end to winter and spring. Key is likely more drier than normal rather than colder than normal surrounding waters.

The previous two summer forecasts had good success with prediction of both July’s expected to be warmer and drier than normal holding true (July 2013 was predicted to be the warmest since 2006 which came true). This was based on cold surrounding water and a dry March through May period which made me come to the conclusion that upper air heights should be stronger than normal.

Based on the latest CFSv2 precip, it’s anyone’s guess but if the Jamstec is anything to go by, well another warmer, drier start to summer looks likely. The fly in the ointment is the EL NINO which is weak and weakening. Had it been only now coming on, well a March-April 2012 repeat is on the cards when it was record warm with strong +NAO followed by wet April which in turn lead to a mixed, damp summer. With the record warmth came a much above normal water temp profile around the UK and combined with El Nino, this helped suppress heights, leading to lower pressure and cooler, wetter conditions.

See video for today’s discussion.

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