Transition from cold to warm is always messy and often dangerous. Many can be fooled into thinking ice is gone when the temp climbs and it feels much more pleasant and people start relaxing more on foot and behind the wheel but the ground remains cold often for days after. Therefore black ice becomes a much more significant risk, often hidden under puddles from snow melt or rainfall. Be careful today and tomorrow even as warmer air gets blown in on increasingly SW’erlies.

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Essentially we’re back to the rollercoaster we left behind as we enter this now waning cold spell. Thankfully the one notable difference is that I don’t see the big storms.

The below GFS surface maps show the milder SW flow and the passing of a wet, windy front during Friday. Once this thing passes, it temporarily turns colder again with stiff NW winds but it too is short lived a heights rise from the south late weekend into early next week and this should bring more substantial milder air.

Interesting to see that modelling brings in a colder theme as early as early next week as heights rebuild to the west of Ireland and we start picking up more northerly flow once again.

ECMWF is quicker to this solution than the GFS.

GFS

Here’s the CFSv2 weeklies. It’s at the very least hinting…

Loving the ENSO-MJO index analog for the upcoming 30-days via Michael Ventrice of WSI Energy…

Looks a lot like the JMA doesn’t it.

See video for more!

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