It was cold last night in particular across the West and Northwest Highlands of Scotland with evening temps (around 4.30pm) dipping to -13.7C at Loch Glascarnoch. That’s the UK’s lowest since 2012 when Holbeach, Lincolnshire hit -15 and Scotland’s lowest since December 2010.

While the chill levelled off overnight across the North, they continued cooling further south. Heathrow fell to -7 this morning.

It was cold in urban centres also.

Here’s a stunning view of a frosty Heathrow from the control tower back a couple of week’s ago when it hit -6.

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Snow Threat

As expected, the front has slowed and is weakening as it feels the cold air over the UK. The boundary will eventually penetrate this cold dome but it will take till later today and through much of tomorrow for the precip to cross the country. This boundary sets the stage for an easier passage for the next front and it’s that next front which looks likely to pull in the milder air. Forecasting these breakdowns can be very tricky as modelling can have a tough time ‘seeing’ the low level cold, dense air.

While precip will be somewhat limited due to the dry, cold air, I think we’ve a decent shot at seeing some decent LOW LEVEL snowfall, particularly over England and Wales as modelling appears to focus snowfall on central swathes of the country. Some will see sleet and rain, others at the same elevation but perhaps more inland could see a decent covering. Hills could see a good few inches. We may also see areas such as London receive a coating or slightly more as the low dives into the channel and winds veer SE, E, pulling in some colder air.

Here’s the latest model snow projections through the next 48 hours.

Don’t be fooled by the models showing milder air coming in. These ‘warmups’ can be snowy, icy and cold. Cold air masses build with dense air constantly sinking. The mjid and upper levels warm but it takes longer for the low levels nearest the ground to warm and therefore ice can remain a problem for longer and precip can fall as freezing rain, sleet or snow when you and models think rain…

GFS surface charts through 120 hrs.

Another Cold Spell On The Way? Look Out Feb 10 Onwards…

With this 70mb warming

SST profile

Strong east QBO…. winter ain’t done and worst may be yet to come!

See today’s video

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