This November will be long remembered for it’s incredible warmth. Less than 10 days ago Trawsgoed, Wales recorded the UK’s warmest November day on record with a new benchmark of 22.4C surpassing the old record of 21.6C set back in 1946.

Throughout the past 24 hours, our flow has connections extending all the way back to the Gulf of Mexico as seen from the incredible satellite image captured yesterday.

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After a wet and windy Monday and overnight, the strong, moist and very mild wind flow allowed overnight temperatures to hold at values higher than what’s typical even by day. Widely, lows didn’t get much below 12-14C but in Murlough, Co Down, the minimum only fell to 16.1C which makes this morning the UK’s warmest overnight for November on record.

How so mild you ask? A contributing factor is likely down to the El Nino in the Pacific as well as warming waters between the subtropical Atlantic and Norwegian Sea. This was highlighted here for months now about a warmer, wetter November.

But in terms of producing a record warm night, firstly you have to look at the source of where our air is coming from. This unusually warm air mass with above freezing air reaching well above 5,000ft has origins extending all the way back to the tropics.

Another key factor is moisture. Moisture retains warmth and when wind blows, it causes the air to mix and therefore there’s in a sense minimal heat loss as a result of moist winds in an already warm air mass. So factoring in the warm, moist source combined with strength of wind along with wet ground which releases even more moisture into an already moist air mass and there’s little overnight cooling.

Surface

5000ft temps over England and Wales were in the 10-15C range. Unusual for this late in the year.

Early afternoon temps are lifting to levels you should be seeing in late September. Some daily records possible.

Winds will be a significant feature with widespread gales across NI and Scotland, possibly N England but severe gales along the coast with hurricane-force winds over the Highlands.

This storm system will also bring in ‘seasonably cold air’ with daytime maximums finally feeling more like November at 6-9C across NI and Scotland, 10-14C across England, Wales and Ireland.

Expect a decent covering of snow over the tops of the Highlands, Pennines and Snowdonia.

As well as the warmth, it’s also turned incredibly wetter than it’s been and this pattern looks to continue.

Enjoy the lull in proceedings Wednesday into Thursday because the next low and probably worst to date is set to sweep in and skirt the NW coast of Scotland later Thursday into Friday.

This setup is strikingly similar now to November 2009 when Seathwaite Farm, Cumbria set a new UK 24 hour rainfall record. As a result we saw devastating floods as stuck weather systems NW and SE of the UK held the boundary in which tropical moisture ran along, the simply bringing a solid wave of rain straight into the Cumbrian Fells which enhanced the rains of course through orographic lift.

Though we’ve already seen some big rain amounts with 109mm (over 4 inches) falling within 24 hours in Wales, the models are printing out astonishing 10 day totals of up to 16 inches for the West Highlands of Scotland.

If the rains are remotely as bad as what models are suggesting then MAJOR FLOODING will become an issue late in November just like we saw in 2009.

See the video for a look at the medium range.

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