United States of America

OKC receives 4.5″ of snow, Most since Feb 2011, More than previous 3 winters & EIGHT January’s combined!

Written by on January 5, 2019 in United States of America with 0 Comments
OKC receives 4.5″ of snow, Most since Feb 2011, More than previous 3 winters & EIGHT January’s combined!

It’s been a while… In fact, nearly 8 years has gone by since Oklahoma City observed a multi inch snow event. The noteworthy 4.5 inches which fell Thursday 2nd January was the city’s biggest snowfall since February 1, 2011 when nearly a foot fell. As you can see from the below graphics. More snow fell […]

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Big variation on New Year’s Day with -30 Minnesota to 80 in Georgia, 1st snow for Tucson in 6 yrs

Written by on January 2, 2019 in United States of America with 0 Comments
Big variation on New Year’s Day with -30 Minnesota to 80 in Georgia, 1st snow for Tucson in 6 yrs

There was two very different air masses separating the US as we commenced 2019. While looking and feeling like winter across a large swathe from Montana to Minnesota and from Arizona to Texas and points in between, it was more like spring from Florida to Rhode Island. On the final day of 2018, temps were […]

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SSWE has occurred, we now await split & downward response, CFSv2 sluggish with -AO/NAO through Jan 25

SSWE has occurred, we now await split & downward response, CFSv2 sluggish with -AO/NAO through Jan 25

The sudden stratospheric warming has now crucially progressed across the pole and headed towards the Davis Straits as we entered 2019. A split in the vortex is expected over the next day or so. Now we all know that there’s a delay or lag between the initial SSWE at 10mb and by the time the […]

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Cold 2nd half to Winter 2018-19? MJO expected to enter cold phases as SSWE causes vortex split!

Cold 2nd half to Winter 2018-19? MJO expected to enter cold phases as SSWE causes vortex split!

The pattern has been mild across most of the continents of the Northern Hemisphere with the aid of a continued amplified MJO progressing through phases 2,3,4 and 5 which supports a neutral to positive AO/NAO. Though NOTHING is certain until we see the pattern evolve, there are more favorable atmospheric drivers/signals/components coming together which supports […]

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US January 2019 Outlook

Written by on December 25, 2018 in United States of America with 0 Comments
US January 2019 Outlook

After a cold October and November for much of the Lower 48, December started off on a similarly cold note with the aid of a retrograding blocking high from the Canadian Archipelago to Alaska. However, as you can see from the below 30 day animation, around the 10th saw a 360 flip with ridge replaced […]

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MJO Driving the US Pattern and Sudden Stratospheric Warming?

Written by on December 19, 2018 in United States of America with 1 Comment
MJO Driving the US Pattern and Sudden Stratospheric Warming?

The persistent thunderstorm activity over the Indian Ocean has been a strong phase 3 indicator of the MJO, a warm phase for the Lower 48. As this convection weakens, we’re going through phases 4 and next week, into 5. As you can see below, phase 4 remains warm but 5 shows cooling out West. Note […]

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If models prove correct with late month SSWE, a 1979 or 2010 style January-February is on the table!

If models prove correct with late month SSWE, a 1979 or 2010 style January-February is on the table!

The latest GFS ensemble continues to show an end of the month SSWE which could make for a very interesting January ahead. There’s still plenty of room of disappointment but our chances for cold is increasing. Note the temperature difference at 10mb over the Arctic between now and January 1st. Rapid warming throughout the depth […]

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North American pattern looking likely to turn from mild to cold in time for Christmas…

Written by on December 14, 2018 in United States of America with 0 Comments
North American pattern looking likely to turn from mild to cold in time for Christmas…

It may be a mild pattern now across a large portion of the continent but the models are seeing the return to a colder, snowier pattern east of the Rockies as we approach Christmas. In fact much of the continent goes from red to blue within the next 2 weeks. Notice in the GFS ensemble […]

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WU: Damp and Cool November; Second-Wettest Autumn in U.S. History

Written by on December 10, 2018 in United States of America with 0 Comments
WU: Damp and Cool November; Second-Wettest Autumn in U.S. History

Bob Henson  ·  December 7, 2018, 3:47 PM EST Six eastern U.S. states joined Texas in slogging through their soggiest autumn in records going back to 1895, according to monthly and seasonal data released Friday by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). Every state from the Great Plains to the East Coast, except […]

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US Cold pattern gives way to mild at the expense of Record Texas snow, Carolinas up next?

Written by on December 8, 2018 in United States of America with 1 Comment
US Cold pattern gives way to mild at the expense of Record Texas snow, Carolinas up next?

A trough of cold, dense air covers a large swath of the US from Texas to Atlantic. A significant storm system is tracking east on the southern edge of this trough through the southern tier this weekend bringing a mix of heavy rain, sleet, snow and freezing rain. There are reports that Lubbock, TX has […]

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