United Kingdom & Ireland
Overview/Summary For the UK and Ireland, the upcoming Easter weekend sees a battle between Scandinavian high pressure verses Atlantic low pressure. Initially, the high (still intensifying) over Scandinavia will win the fight, preventing Atlantic weather fronts from progressing eastward. There appears to be some good cross-model agreement, that the bulk of the long holiday weekend […]
March has been a tale of two halves with cold first half followed by mild second and drastically different compared to February in the rainfall department. The precipitation anomaly between February and March is the complete opposite, temperature-wise, it looks to fall a fraction BELOW AVERAGE compared to the warm February. February 2023 February 2023 […]
For the UK, winter 2022-23 has been around average with small areas of above normal. For much of the continent, it’s been another mild to warm one. December really stood out for both UK and Europe compared to the rest of 2022 as seen in the graphic below! December 22 anomaly January 23 Feb 23 […]
Following a colder-than-average December and only colder month compared to average in 2022, January will wind up slightly above average. A warm opening 10 days and cold following 10, the final 7 days looks to tip the balance on the slightly above average side… Based on a non-development of a sudden stratospheric warning or SSW, […]
December 2022 marks a significant turnaround to what’s been a warm year. In fact the warmest year on record many parts of Europe including UK. December 2022 has been a distinct tail of two halves with a very cold first 15 days followed by much milder 2nd half. The month featured the deepest December -AO/NAO […]
THIS ARTICLE MAY BE SUBJECT TO SOME MINOR CHANGES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO… The (locked) cold pattern has broken… The return of the Atlantic is down to the MJO returning to phases 2, 3, 4 combined with the WPO, EPO going back positive. The southward discharge of arctic air out of Alaska, N […]
Welcome to my 13th annual winter forecast for Europe. In this forecast, the conclusions drawn for the upcoming 90-day meteorological winter period are based on the current state of solar cycle 25, current ocean and atmospheric drivers and my understanding of their potential influence. Of course, pinpointing any specific pattern several weeks or months ahead […]
Following a record warm, dry summer, November and autumn will go down as warm and wet. Europe 2m temp anomaly Sep Oct Nov This follows what has been a record warm year-to-date for UK as well as Europe. Hints back in September of what was coming in December? The pattern triggered by the phase 6, […]
Following a very warm, dry summer, autumn flipped wet with the aid of increased tropical activity. Temperature-wise, it marginally held onto the mild theme in September with warm start followed by coldest 2nd half to a September (-NAO) since 2012 according to Gavin Partridge. It was cold in the east. October saw the return to […]
September has been a very different month compared to recent months. Following the hottest and possibly driest summer on record for the continent, September has turned out cooler and wetter. The most likely cause of the change is down to the tropics! Sept anomaly Year-to-date Current SST’s Despite the UK overall winding up slightly warmer […]
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