Autumn 2016
The post El Nino dominance of warmth holds strong through meteorological autumn’s second month. This was September… Despite a strong -AO, the warmth continues. October so far! That trend even continues into early November… Another warm month to come? I believe the first half of November will continue to see a warmer than normal pattern over […]
We continue our journey from summer into winter and it’s often a rollercoaster ride. This week shall be no exception. On the other side of the Atlantic, a storm system has swept away record 80-degree weather day after day over the Northeast US and replaced it with cold, windy and even snowy conditions. This dramatic contrast has accelerated the trans […]
In the wake of a record warm September, a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) with persistent blocking high pressure over Scandinavia which has made for a cold October. -AO forced by a nice tropospheric warming event. October temperature anomaly so far this October. It’s been a record warm October over the Eastern United States. Note below the […]
[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] Despite there being a strong -AO, it’s been a toasty October from the Plains to East Coast. Despite this nice tropospheric warming event which forced the tanking of the AO… This is the temperature anomaly across the US through the opening 18 days of Oct. There’s an abrupt shift now underway for the East […]
As we enter the final 10 days of October I continue to gather the remaining evidence in order to put forward my 2016-17 winter forecast. The latest information regarding Arctic Sea Ice states that for the time of year, we have the lowest levels on record as you can see from the below chart. Look […]
NHC has decreased the development of Invest 99L from 80 to 50% given the sheared environment it’s in and disorganised appearance this morning. The good news is that even if this thing we’re to develop, it’s unlikely to significantly impact the US East Coast. However, it’s the very eastbound frontal system sliding through the Tennessee/Ohio Valley that will steer 99L away from […]
As your well aware, we’ve a very blocked up pattern with high pressure repositioning back into Scandinavia while Atlantic lows get diverted into Iberia and south-central Europe. However, the driving mechanism to our weather can be traced back to North America. In today’s written post I want to show you the GFS jet stream chart through the […]
By Linda Lam and Jon Erdman Published Oct 19 2016 04:54 PM EDT weather.com Story Highlights High temperatures in the 80s and even 90s are baking parts of the East and South. The heat has already set many record highs in the Plains, South and East. More record highs are expected Thursday before fall temperatures […]
At this time last year, the polar vortex was strong and continuing to strengthen, likely influenced by the heat discharge emitted by the oncoming Super El Nino with a firm low over high pressure hemispheric 500mb pattern. This laid to dominant zonal, oceanic influence on both North America, Europe and indeed Asia. This year it’s been weak and this along with a […]
It’s a storm with a split personality! Dodge City, KS hit 101F yesterday, their first ever 100 in October! Behind the front it was a chilly 11F at Marbleton, WY this morning. Bigtime flip in 500mb pattern and as a result a 20-40F temp drop. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] [/s2If][s2If current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)][magicactionbox id=”18716″][/s2If]
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