Tag: north atlantic oscillation

Stratospheric Polar Vortex Under Pressure?

Written by on December 20, 2021 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Stratospheric Polar Vortex Under Pressure?

If you read my 2021-22 winter forecast below, you’ll see how I explain why a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) has a greater chance of occurring late December ’21/early January ’22 compared to others. European Winter Forecast 2021-22 Interestingly, the models are sniffing at ‘potentially’ just that towards the end of December early January. Initial Wed […]

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Warming waters around Greenland… Could our chances of a mid/late winter cold pattern be increasing?

Written by on December 2, 2018 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Warming waters around Greenland… Could our chances of a mid/late winter cold pattern be increasing?

A record strong and prolonged +NAO between May and August helped drive one of Europe’s hottest summer’s in the last 100 years while Greenland shivered it’s coldest since 1997. The cooling of the North Atlantic has almost certainly helped cool Greenland’s summers down and helped enhance this past summer’s deep Greenland trough and Europe ridge. […]

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Negative AO/NAO developing? Models see cold Halloween/early November on both sides of Atlantic

Written by on October 19, 2018 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Negative AO/NAO developing? Models see cold Halloween/early November on both sides of Atlantic

After a pretty active first 20 days of October with flooding rains and named storms, the models are hinting at a colder pattern developing on both sides of the Atlantic to end October/begin November. A strong 1040mb Azores high is currently centred WSW of Ireland. This will feed most of the active weather over top […]

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Have We Just Had The 2nd Strongest -NAO since 1948?

Have We Just Had The 2nd Strongest -NAO since 1948?

The British Isles turns cold following a sudden stratospheric warming some 66% percent of the time. The mid February warming of course led to the record breaking ‘beast from the east’ last week. When Europe turns cold a week to 10 days following an SSWE, the NAO is often very negative along with the AO. […]

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Kangerlussuaq, Greenland as warm as ANYWHERE in UK yesterday!

Kangerlussuaq, Greenland as warm as ANYWHERE in UK yesterday!

While Summit Station, Greenland has warmed 41C in 8 days from -55C to a current -14C, the west coast of Greenland enjoyed a balmy 12C, that’s 12 ABOVE freezing at Kangerlussuaq. The average maximum at this time of year here is -7C! The surge is warmth is all thanks to the strong upper ridge that’s replacing high octane […]

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NAO goes positive and so Atlantic replaces Arctic in time for Halloween

NAO goes positive and so Atlantic replaces Arctic in time for Halloween

This morning comfortably marked our coolest of autumn so far with a widespread frost and minimum down to -5C at Tulloch Bridge. As our high slides off to our south, milder maritime air will quickly return overnight tonight. Sunday’s northerly air flow followed by Monday’s high pressure set the scene for this morning’s cool, crisp […]

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No Guarantee Of UK Cold Outbreak BUT, Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event Is Underway!

No Guarantee Of UK Cold Outbreak BUT, Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event Is Underway!

We’re ending January with a stratospheric warming event as temperatures have risen 60C at within the past week at 10mb over the Arctic. This is within SSWE criteria. AO will go negative in response! Not related but it was a cold start to this morning over Highland Scotland with -10C recorded at Braemar but in contrast, it was 20C warmer on the SW coast of England. […]

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Strongest El Nino Since 1998 Already Influencing The Large-Scale/Long Term US Pattern

Written by on May 20, 2015 in Spring 2015, United States of America with 0 Comments
Strongest El Nino Since 1998 Already Influencing The Large-Scale/Long Term US Pattern

Through May 12th, here’s how the month is looking temperature wise across the US. Notice that it’s warmest where it was coldest during February and where it’s become pretty dry with NYC seeing the most rain free days since 2001. It’s also been cool where it’s been very wet. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] We see a temporary cold […]

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EUROPE: One Last Shot At Winter? 2nd Strongest March AO Limits Impact

EUROPE: One Last Shot At Winter? 2nd Strongest March AO Limits Impact

The wind stream map off MeteoEarth shows just how busy the North Atlantic is today. Four lows are spinning and three are producing hurricane-force gusts. It’s all eyes on the high building and expanding over Scandinavia as this will turn our flow easterly over the next 24 hours. These chilly easterly winds will pick up […]

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Solar Likely Holding NAO/AO Positive But Why The Cold Spells Then? A Look At Winter’s ‘Chilly’ End Game…

Solar Likely Holding NAO/AO Positive But Why The Cold Spells Then? A Look At Winter’s ‘Chilly’ End Game…

There has undoubtedly been a distinct lack of negative NAO and even AO this winter. That’s despite seeing 3 cold spells. Sure, they’ve not been all that extreme on the grand scheme of things. The first during the first 2 weeks of December brought some snow and cold, the 2nd the week between Christmas and […]

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