Tag: AO

Stratospheric Polar Vortex Under Pressure?

Written by on December 20, 2021 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Stratospheric Polar Vortex Under Pressure?

If you read my 2021-22 winter forecast below, you’ll see how I explain why a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) has a greater chance of occurring late December ’21/early January ’22 compared to others. European Winter Forecast 2021-22 Interestingly, the models are sniffing at ‘potentially’ just that towards the end of December early January. Initial Wed […]

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Global Drivers Align For 2010 Repeat? There Are Differences Which Are of Concern!

Written by on October 20, 2021 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Global Drivers Align For 2010 Repeat? There Are Differences Which Are of Concern!

Based on my recent video and article regarding solar cycle and global SST response, you probably get the idea by now that the Pacific (PDO) has cooled (helped by the return of La Nina) and Atlantic is warm, very warm. The take home is this… There appears to be good linkage between solar and SST’s with […]

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Europe June 2021 Outlook (Spring 2021 Recap)

Written by on May 18, 2021 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Europe June 2021 Outlook (Spring 2021 Recap)

As is often the case with prolonged ‘stuck patterns’ featuring high latitude blocking, we can flip from one extreme to the other and that’s certainly been the case in terms of rainfall between April and May. As for temperature, well it’s been pretty much continuously below average since the end of March. Since the UK […]

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Did tropics dictate N Hemisphere winter 18-19? What gave may have also taken away!

Written by on February 5, 2019 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Did tropics dictate N Hemisphere winter 18-19? What gave may have also taken away!

I feel my cold, blocky winter projections keep getting pushed back and so therefore my forecast has busted some. Sure it did turn colder beyond New Year but that came came across the Atlantic rather than Russia as expected. The reason for the bust? It’s got a lot to do with the fact the NAO […]

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Glasgow, Paris, Brussels, Amsterdam see 1st snow but why no North Atlantic/Greenland block? Blame the MJO!

Written by on January 22, 2019 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Glasgow, Paris, Brussels, Amsterdam see 1st snow but why no North Atlantic/Greenland block? Blame the MJO!

Many parts of Scotland including myself woke this morning to the first blanket of snow ahead of potentially the coldest night of winter tonight. However, many may be asking, what happened to the ‘beast from the east’ or Greenland block? After all our weather continues to come in from the west. Instead of this… We’ve […]

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SSWE has occurred, we now await split & downward response, CFSv2 sluggish with -AO/NAO through Jan 25

SSWE has occurred, we now await split & downward response, CFSv2 sluggish with -AO/NAO through Jan 25

The sudden stratospheric warming has now crucially progressed across the pole and headed towards the Davis Straits as we entered 2019. A split in the vortex is expected over the next day or so. Now we all know that there’s a delay or lag between the initial SSWE at 10mb and by the time the […]

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East QBO, MJO phase 5-6, displaced polar vortex point to ‘sustained’ cold, blocky pattern

East QBO, MJO phase 5-6, displaced polar vortex point to ‘sustained’ cold, blocky pattern

With an easterly QBO, phase 5 into 6 MJO, La Nina and perturbed polar vortex and reflective high latitude blocking underneath, many things point to a prolonged spell of cooler than average pattern on both sides of the pond. GFS ensemble shows the blocky pattern maintaining. Check out the 500mb height anomaly 5-day means. 2m […]

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Hints of A Cooler, Quieter, Blocky Pattern Developing For Western Europe?

Hints of A Cooler, Quieter, Blocky Pattern Developing For Western Europe?

After weeks of dealing with hurricanes, former hurricanes and storms, we’re edging ever closer to winter, the season many of us are longing for. Up until now it’s been all about the Atlantic with no mention of the Arctic. This will inevitably change as we head into November. So far, our setup has very much […]

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US: ‘Strong El Nino Pattern’ Very Evident Into December But More Northern Blocking January/February?

Written by on November 28, 2015 in Autumn 2015, United States of America, Winter 2015/16 with 0 Comments
US: ‘Strong El Nino Pattern’ Very Evident Into December But More Northern Blocking January/February?

Now and on into next week, the strongly +AO/NAO will continue to drive a powerful and very zonal upper flow pattern around the mid-latitudes with an El Nino enhanced, hose-like southern branch that’s essentially pumping tropical energy northward into the middle latitudes. This means a continued active but largely mild pattern across North America. The GFS […]

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Strong El Nino To Drive Warm Start To European Winter, Why Such A Warm November?

Strong El Nino To Drive Warm Start To European Winter, Why Such A Warm November?

Thanks to the abnormally mild, humid, cloudy SW flow through the first 20 days of the month, it looks as though the UK has seen a top 5 warm November. Helped by the fact we experienced both the warmest day (22C) and night (16C) on record. Warm, moist air with a lot of cloud cover means nights […]

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