Tag: AO
If you read my 2021-22 winter forecast below, you’ll see how I explain why a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) has a greater chance of occurring late December ’21/early January ’22 compared to others. European Winter Forecast 2021-22 Interestingly, the models are sniffing at ‘potentially’ just that towards the end of December early January. Initial Wed […]
Based on my recent video and article regarding solar cycle and global SST response, you probably get the idea by now that the Pacific (PDO) has cooled (helped by the return of La Nina) and Atlantic is warm, very warm. The take home is this… There appears to be good linkage between solar and SST’s with […]
As is often the case with prolonged ‘stuck patterns’ featuring high latitude blocking, we can flip from one extreme to the other and that’s certainly been the case in terms of rainfall between April and May. As for temperature, well it’s been pretty much continuously below average since the end of March. Since the UK […]
Many parts of Scotland including myself woke this morning to the first blanket of snow ahead of potentially the coldest night of winter tonight. However, many may be asking, what happened to the ‘beast from the east’ or Greenland block? After all our weather continues to come in from the west. Instead of this… We’ve […]
With an easterly QBO, phase 5 into 6 MJO, La Nina and perturbed polar vortex and reflective high latitude blocking underneath, many things point to a prolonged spell of cooler than average pattern on both sides of the pond. GFS ensemble shows the blocky pattern maintaining. Check out the 500mb height anomaly 5-day means. 2m […]
After weeks of dealing with hurricanes, former hurricanes and storms, we’re edging ever closer to winter, the season many of us are longing for. Up until now it’s been all about the Atlantic with no mention of the Arctic. This will inevitably change as we head into November. So far, our setup has very much […]
US: ‘Strong El Nino Pattern’ Very Evident Into December But More Northern Blocking January/February?
Now and on into next week, the strongly +AO/NAO will continue to drive a powerful and very zonal upper flow pattern around the mid-latitudes with an El Nino enhanced, hose-like southern branch that’s essentially pumping tropical energy northward into the middle latitudes. This means a continued active but largely mild pattern across North America. The GFS […]
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