Mark Vogan

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Europe May 2023 Outlook

Written by on April 30, 2023 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Europe May 2023 Outlook

For the UK, spring (March) started very cold and moderated as the month progressed and became increasingly wet (wettest since 1981 for England). The month averaged slightly below temperature-wise. April is seeing a mild, dry north, cooler, wetter south and is likely to wind up near to slightly below average temperature-wise and perhaps near average […]

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Extreme Weather Sweeps Asia To Start 2023

Written by on April 23, 2023 in Asia, Rest of World with 0 Comments
Extreme Weather Sweeps Asia To Start 2023

It’s been a wild winter and spring across Asia with extremes for both cold and heat. Thanks to it’s vast size, topography and position within the largest continent on earth linking tropics with arctic, China observed a particularly extreme ride so far in 2023. Firstly, the the far north, saw China’s first -50C since 1969 […]

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Easter Outlook 2023: High Pressure vs Low Pressure!

Written by on April 6, 2023 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Easter Outlook 2023: High Pressure vs Low Pressure!

Overview/Summary For the UK and Ireland, the upcoming Easter weekend sees a battle between Scandinavian high pressure verses Atlantic low pressure. Initially, the high (still intensifying) over Scandinavia will win the fight, preventing Atlantic weather fronts from progressing eastward. There appears to be some good cross-model agreement, that the bulk of the long holiday weekend […]

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Europe April 2023 Outlook (Includes video)

Written by on March 31, 2023 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Europe April 2023 Outlook (Includes video)

March has been a tale of two halves with cold first half followed by mild second and drastically different compared to February in the rainfall department. The precipitation anomaly between February and March is the complete opposite, temperature-wise, it looks to fall a fraction BELOW AVERAGE compared to the warm February. February 2023 February 2023 […]

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Europe March 2023 Outlook (Winter Recap)

Written by on March 1, 2023 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Europe March 2023 Outlook (Winter Recap)

For the UK, winter 2022-23 has been around average with small areas of above normal. For much of the continent, it’s been another mild to warm one. December really stood out for both UK and Europe compared to the rest of 2022 as seen in the graphic below! December 22 anomaly January 23 Feb 23 […]

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Europe February 2023 Outlook (Scoring winter so far!)

Written by on February 1, 2023 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Europe February 2023 Outlook (Scoring winter so far!)

Following a colder-than-average December and only colder month compared to average in 2022, January will wind up slightly above average. A warm opening 10 days and cold following 10, the final 7 days looks to tip the balance on the slightly above average side… Based on a non-development of a sudden stratospheric warning or SSW, […]

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Europe January 2023 Outlook

Written by on January 1, 2023 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Europe January 2023 Outlook

December 2022 marks a significant turnaround to what’s been a warm year. In fact the warmest year on record many parts of Europe including UK. December 2022 has been a distinct tail of two halves with a very cold first 15 days followed by much milder 2nd half. The month featured the deepest December -AO/NAO […]

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2022/23: Christmas-New Year-Early January Forecast!

Written by on December 21, 2022 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
2022/23: Christmas-New Year-Early January Forecast!

THIS ARTICLE MAY BE SUBJECT TO SOME MINOR CHANGES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO… The (locked) cold pattern has broken… The return of the Atlantic is down to the MJO returning to phases 2, 3, 4 combined with the WPO, EPO going back positive. The southward discharge of arctic air out of Alaska, N […]

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European Winter Forecast 2022-23

Written by on December 1, 2022 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
European Winter Forecast 2022-23

Welcome to my 13th annual winter forecast for Europe. In this forecast, the conclusions drawn for the upcoming 90-day meteorological winter period are based on the current state of solar cycle 25, current ocean and atmospheric drivers and my understanding of their potential influence. Of course, pinpointing any specific pattern several weeks or months ahead […]

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Europe December 2022 Outlook

Written by on November 30, 2022 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments
Europe December 2022 Outlook

Following a record warm, dry summer, November and autumn will go down as warm and wet. Europe 2m temp anomaly Sep Oct Nov This follows what has been a record warm year-to-date for UK as well as Europe. Hints back in September of what was coming in December? The pattern triggered by the phase 6, […]

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