Europe May 2022 Outlook

Written by on April 25, 2022 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

April 2022 commenced record cold and strikingly similar to April 2021 but unlike last year, a significant mid-month warm up has brought the monthly average now ABOVE average for the UK, nearer average for France while Spain and central Europe remains colder than average.

The chill is a direct consequence of the multiple waves of warming within the stratosphere during March which has fed down through the troposphere.

First 14 day Europe temp anomaly

Credit: Weatherbell

Within that first 2 weeks of the month, we observed some quite significant high ground snow over N Scotland.

Snow even lay near sea level.

Temperatures were impressively cold for so late in parts of Germany, the Alps, France and Spain.

A warmer past week has washed out much of the cold anomaly, particularly over the UK.

1-23rd anomaly

Credit: Weatherbell

The final week of the month sees a cooling trend once again.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

The return of cooler and arctic blocking returns as both AO and NAO go back negative with NAO most negative since this time last year when we observed the coldest April since 1986 and coldest May since 1996.

From winter to summer back to winter in Spain!

April 2022 has been particularly cool for Iberia and this follows a cold March. A mid-month surge of summer however pushed temperatures briefly to record levels with Malaga topping 33.1C, it’s warmest April day on record. This sudden surge in temperature only lasted through the Easter weekend as a cold low produced the country’s snowiest spell for April in 20 years!

Looks like Spain will wind up below normal for March and April overall, France near average to slightly above along with the UK as the end of the month cool down is likely to be too late.

So, May looks to open cold but what happens into week 2, 3 and 4?

According to the latest run of the CFSv2 weeklies, the model sees average to above average temperatures returning towards mid-May and becoming comfortably ABOVE average during the 2nd half of the month.

CFSv2 week 3, 4 and 5.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Indeed, holding a cold pattern during the final month of meteorological spring is tough given strength of sun, shortening of wave lengths shrinking cold and expanding warmth etc etc. Warmth I think WILL strengthen fairly quickly after what’s likely to be our final ‘cold spell’ end of April m start of May.

That being said, CFSv2 MONTHLY contradicts it’s weeklies.

March ended dry and so too is April. Interestingly, 3 of the last 4 April’s have been very to exceptionally dry!

May can be very tricky, the final TRANSITION month which can see lingering cool but has also been know to bring the ‘sunniest and warmest weather of the entire year’.

CFSv2 ”WEEKLIES” doesn’t provide a particularly wet May. Wet start for Spain and France with the presence of LP underneath HP.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

A a complete contradiction to what the CFSv2 ”MONTHLY” sees…

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

So, the weeklies see a cool open but increasingly mild to warm week 2, 3 and 4 of May, yet it’s monthly has average to below average heights/temps below and above average rainfall (above)!

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

May looks to open cool across a large swathe of Europe with UK on the edge of both warm and cold air masses.

As we progress through week 2 and onto into 3 and 4, we could see a bit of back and forth of warm and cool with potential for some significant warmth (22-26C Scotland, 26-30C England) mid/late month as both AO/NAO flipping positive.

VERDICT: AVERAGE to ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE UK FOR MAY 2022

PRECIPITATION: AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR UK!

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