April 2022 commenced record cold and strikingly similar to April 2021 but unlike last year, a significant mid-month warm up has brought the monthly average now ABOVE average for the UK, nearer average for France while Spain and central Europe remains colder than average.
The chill is a direct consequence of the multiple waves of warming within the stratosphere during March which has fed down through the troposphere.
First 14 day Europe temp anomaly
Within that first 2 weeks of the month, we observed some quite significant high ground snow over N Scotland.
The A9 blocked Daviot northbound. vehicles stuck in the snow.
Photo Gavin Edward pic.twitter.com/BVW29LC9k1
— Highlandweather (@highlandweather) April 7, 2022
A9 north of Helmsdale this morning. @WindyWilson88 pic.twitter.com/4vluY2YoZC
— MarkVoganWeather.com ?? (@MarkVogan) April 9, 2022
Snow even lay near sea level.
A wintry start to April 5th at @KincraigCastle near Invergordon, Ross-Shire. Photo credit: Lindsay Atcheson @bbcweather @BBCScotWeather @SeanBattyTV @WindyWilson88 pic.twitter.com/aAXPhYM1Tk
— MarkVoganWeather.com ?? (@MarkVogan) April 5, 2022
Snow did a pretty good job at hanging around in #Invergordon (near sea level) today given strength of ? & precip turning to ? with even a change back to ❄ pic.twitter.com/9QbRyLGzLa
— MarkVoganWeather.com ?? (@MarkVogan) April 5, 2022
Temperatures were impressively cold for so late in parts of Germany, the Alps, France and Spain.
**BREAKING** With a national average minimum temperature of -1.5C, France ?? just witnessed it's coldest April night since records began back in 1947! pic.twitter.com/KuAywAa8KW
— MarkVoganWeather.com ?? (@MarkVogan) April 4, 2022
Some monthly tmin records were set in Germany today, mostly at young stations, but three with more than 50 years of record stand out:
-8.8°C Memmingen. Records since 1961.
-8.1°C Augsburg, tied the record from 2003. Since 1947.
-5.9°C Wutöschingen-Ofteringen. Since 1961. pic.twitter.com/JnLCIFYW6F— Michael Anderson (@MAnderson003) April 4, 2022
? Historic #cold for April in #France!
-21.5°C Les Pontets [1,008 m] ➡️ national April record at this elevation!
-20.4°C La Chaux [880 m]
-11.1°C Etalans [540 m]*
-9.3°C Mourmelon-le-Grand [115 m]*
*The national April record below 500 m is -10.5°C.See attached monthly records. pic.twitter.com/dn38YAskdF
— Thierry Goose (@ThierryGooseBC) April 4, 2022
A warmer past week has washed out much of the cold anomaly, particularly over the UK.
1-23rd anomaly
The final week of the month sees a cooling trend once again.
The return of cooler and arctic blocking returns as both AO and NAO go back negative with NAO most negative since this time last year when we observed the coldest April since 1986 and coldest May since 1996.
From winter to summer back to winter in Spain!
April 2022 has been particularly cool for Iberia and this follows a cold March. A mid-month surge of summer however pushed temperatures briefly to record levels with Malaga topping 33.1C, it’s warmest April day on record. This sudden surge in temperature only lasted through the Easter weekend as a cold low produced the country’s snowiest spell for April in 20 years!
Looks like Spain will wind up below normal for March and April overall, France near average to slightly above along with the UK as the end of the month cool down is likely to be too late.
So, May looks to open cold but what happens into week 2, 3 and 4?
According to the latest run of the CFSv2 weeklies, the model sees average to above average temperatures returning towards mid-May and becoming comfortably ABOVE average during the 2nd half of the month.
CFSv2 week 3, 4 and 5.
Indeed, holding a cold pattern during the final month of meteorological spring is tough given strength of sun, shortening of wave lengths shrinking cold and expanding warmth etc etc. Warmth I think WILL strengthen fairly quickly after what’s likely to be our final ‘cold spell’ end of April m start of May.
That being said, CFSv2 MONTHLY contradicts it’s weeklies.
March ended dry and so too is April. Interestingly, 3 of the last 4 April’s have been very to exceptionally dry!
May can be very tricky, the final TRANSITION month which can see lingering cool but has also been know to bring the ‘sunniest and warmest weather of the entire year’.
CFSv2 ”WEEKLIES” doesn’t provide a particularly wet May. Wet start for Spain and France with the presence of LP underneath HP.
A a complete contradiction to what the CFSv2 ”MONTHLY” sees…
So, the weeklies see a cool open but increasingly mild to warm week 2, 3 and 4 of May, yet it’s monthly has average to below average heights/temps below and above average rainfall (above)!
May looks to open cool across a large swathe of Europe with UK on the edge of both warm and cold air masses.
As we progress through week 2 and onto into 3 and 4, we could see a bit of back and forth of warm and cool with potential for some significant warmth (22-26C Scotland, 26-30C England) mid/late month as both AO/NAO flipping positive.
VERDICT: AVERAGE to ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE UK FOR MAY 2022
PRECIPITATION: AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR UK!
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