What a difference this Easter week compared to 2 years ago when I last published an Easter forecast!
During Easter 2020, the country was in the firm grip of lockdown with little moving on our roads except for emergency services and the movement of essential goods. Folks were barely allowed out the door and what made matters worse, it was warm outside but not quite as warm as 2019 which was record breaking.
EASTER WEEKEND 2020!
An eery empty #A9 near #Aviemore at 2pm in the middle of the #EasterWeekend. Something you'll 'hopefully' never see again… #Covid19 #UKlockdown pic.twitter.com/QgudvgDpSm
— MarkVoganWeather.com ?? (@MarkVogan) April 19, 2020
RUN-UP TO EASTER 2022
Easter travel CHAOS as 21.5 million drivers hit the roads https://t.co/6OFFICilLf
— The Sun (@TheSun) April 11, 2022
Drive at night to avoid Easter travel chaos, motorists warned https://t.co/BfAT0AIifd
— LBC (@LBC) April 11, 2022
V
The Easter travel weekend from hell is here! Huge queues at airports – where bosses failed to hire enough staff after Covid pandemic – as holidaymakers are told to arrive THREE hours early, the M20 is gridlocked and 90-minute delays at Dover
======https://t.co/6luesyMewL pic.twitter.com/oJAnaHVv4U— Επικαιρότητα – V – News (@triantafyllidi2) April 9, 2022
People trying to get away for Easter are facing even more disruption. Thousands of lorries remain in queues on the M20 near Dover as P&O Ferries remain cancelled. #HeartNews pic.twitter.com/zkZlsdUlLv
— Heart South News (@HeartSouthNews) April 8, 2022
Where was my Easter forecast 2021? Not much point in producing one as we were in the midst of lockdown 2, without the freedom to travel there was little point in issuing a forecast?
Recent Easter’s have certainly featured some pretty big flips from summer to winter back to summer. Record warmth during the weekend of Easter 2019 witnessed a wintry element both ends of that weekend and even this year we could turn wintry over Scotland later Easter Monday.
Certainly up until the later half of the upcoming long holiday weekend, our atmosphere is firmly in ‘spring mode’ with southerly winds keeping us on the warmer side of average (for the most part). High pressure to our southeast, low pressure never far away to our west, northwest means showers or longer spells of rain, particularly for west and north. Driest, brightest, warmest always the further south and east you are.
With relative cool aloft (0 to +3C) at 850mb combined with 16-18C widely at the surface, ‘April showers’ shall be a feature throughout this week with a threat of heavier and longer spells of rain developing as low pressure tries to nudge in from off the Atlantic. Looks like it has greater success in doing so during the weekend.
Here is the latest ECMWF interpretation of this upcoming Easter weekend.
Good Friday
Credit: wxcharts.com
2m temp at 1500
Credit: wxcharts.com
Saturday
Credit: wxcharts.com
2m temp at 1500
Credit: wxcharts.com
Easter Sunday
Looks to turn increasingly soggy through the afternoon and particularly evening as heavy, persistent rain slides in from the west. Western and northern areas look to be affected most, driest the further south and east you are.
Credit: wxcharts.com
Credit: wxcharts.com
Easter Monday
Following a soggy start, conditions should improve for most through the morning, giving way to afternoon sun but with the low close to the NW coast, showers or longer spells of rain could affect parts of W and N Scotland through Monday and evening with a wintry flavour to the precip over high ground as cooler air digs in.
Credit: wxcharts.com
Credit: wxcharts.com
2m temp at 1200 (note the warmth shrinks to SE)
Credit: wxcharts.com
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