Europe December 2021 Outlook (Video included)

Written by on November 30, 2021 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

For the past couple of months I have outlined the pros and cons on whether we had a high or low likelihood of a cold winter ahead. I stand by my overall thinking that there is ‘good potential’ for significant spells of snow and cold in 2021-22.

I look back at the month of November and am happy with how it turned out verses my forecast. A colder, more unsettled final 10 days.

Given that we’ve seen the lowest November temperatures for Sweden since 1980 along with early snow, cold for many parts of Europe including UK and Ireland as well as over the US/Canada and Far East, I feel pretty confident that December will bring a more advanced spell of snow and cold.

There is growing confidence of cold high pressure developing and flexing in intensity and position during December over Northern Europe. However, the Atlantic is also going to remain active with many deep lows forming and tracking towards the UK.

Building cold highs over Russia/Scandinavia which are likely to expend west/southwest and an active Atlantic, we could see a pretty extreme battle developing between Atlantic and continent with UK within the war zone of weather.

The below 850mb chart shows the ocean-continent battle with extremely cold air present over Scandinavia while the Atlantic pushes mild air into the UK.


At times the Atlantic wins like we’ve seen in the last couple of days but BEHIND low pressure comes the return to much colder air, drawn in from the NNE.


With these intrusions of arctic air come increased snow risk, especially but not exclusively to Scotland and higher ground…

‘Waves’of cold from continent towards Atlantic looks likely to continue and arriving much prominantly as early as NEXT WEEK. The resistance of Atlantic against building continental cold may come with extremes in temperature swings and incredibly deep lows like modelling suggests (see video below).

While I don’t see cold becoming dominant over Western Europe, I also don’t see the dominance of mild either though there will be spells of mild. Cold will never be too far away and there should be a constant push which ‘at times’ wins the fight. A back and forth battle I believe will be how December 2021 is remembered with greater chance of a more wintry run up to the Christmas/New Year period.

I also wish to point out the potential for a ‘major’ cold spell hitting, something with similarity to late December 1995. Remember how cold it got just prior to New Year?

The long term CFSv2 sees somewhat of a battle with cold Europe trough while a high is positioned west, southwest of the UK. How far north this high get’s determines how much Atlantic influence there may be around it’s top and into W Europe. I still fear that this high may position too close to the UK and could hold continental cold on the other sides of the North Sea like observed in 2011-12.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

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