Global Drivers Align For 2010 Repeat? There Are Differences Which Are of Concern!

Written by on October 20, 2021 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Based on my recentĀ video and article regarding solar cycle and global SST response, you probably get the idea by now that the Pacific (PDO) has cooled (helped by the return of La Nina) and Atlantic is warm, very warm.

The take home is this…

There appears to be good linkage between solar and SST’s with a warming Pacific around the solar maximum (warmer Europe) and cooling around and particularly AFTER the minimum (colder Europe).

More often than not, so say 8 out of every 10 winters, there’s a firm trend to mild with brief spells of cold. Yes there may still be some decent -AO episodes (part-driven) by SSW’s over the other side of the pole but the NAO tends to lean positive, the QBO too tends to lean more westerly and this probably helps with the tendency to more +NAO’s.

THIS year, based on seemingly more favourable global SST’s, especially with the return of the Gulf of Alaska cold and ‘near’ horseshoe of cold which alters the upper height pattern and therefore alters the downstream influences. We have a weak negative Indian Ocean Dipole (favourable) and high chance of a continued east QBO into winter (favourable), so it ‘appears’ this could be the year to make for fun and games. Right?

Coincidence or not, Arctic sea ice is greater this year compared to much of the last 10 years (again possibly/likely solar related) and this too should help build the polar air mass quicker and help grow the hemispheric snow pack.

While Siberia may be close to average for time of year, Scandinavia appears a little ahead of the game. Does this make a difference to the outcome down the road, truthfully, who knows… Better than seeing minimal snow cover right?

Here is the global SST anomaly now compared to 2010. Looks close right?

Current

October 2010

HOWEVER, there are some pretty important differences which raise concern.

  1. Strength and position of La Nina
  2. The Atlantic is warmer than 2010 and doesn’t show the classic tripole
  3. Very warm September’s (2nd warmest) aren’t usually followed by a cold winter (UK)

The ribbon of cold anomaly extending from Newfoundland to Azores was clearly visible in 2010, not so this year and one worry is the position of ‘warm pools’ in an overall warm Atlantic. These warm pools aren’t in the best of places, for example the warmth built up near the Azores may enhance the Azores high and lead to weaker high pressure further north and west (Greenland) and the two could fight one another, either way mild would be the likely outcome if there’s a stronger and north positioned Azores high.

Time will only tell if we can cool these warm pools and hopefully cool down the central N Atlantic to force feedback of ridging north and west of the UK.

In essence this could lead to high pressure too close to the UK or even worse, SSW which would drive mild southwest winds.

Then again, there’s always the chance that the other, more favourable forces outweigh the Atlantic SST and those warm pools in less favoured areas has less influential to the large scale hemispheric pattern.

With a strengthening westerlies over the Atlantic over the next week or so, let’s watch and see if the cooling off Canada can spread east…

Tropical Tidbits

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