Europe September 2021 Outlook (Video included)

Written by on August 31, 2021 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

The unusually dry final 7-10 days of August helped rank summer 2021 as one of the driest on record for Scotland. Thanks to dominant high latitude blocking through the June-August period (possibly aided by low solar), northern areas have seen the least rain while parts of south and east England have been fairly wet.

The late August high set records.

August wound up one of the dullest since records began back in 1881 for E London. This emphasizes that high pressure doesn’t always mean sunshine and position in key. With the position of the core NW of Scotland, a fresh, cloud laden northeast kept SE England very cool and cloudy.

Warm waters N and W of the UK allowed a lot of moisture to get picked up by the high and very cool waters in the North Sea meant an additional chill added before reaching shore. This meant August was cooler than average for London and SE.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

The focus of ‘wetter than normal’ has been over France where it’s been one of the coolest and wettest of the past 20 years. Often, when the core of strongest heights are positioned further north, there’s often an undercutting trough beneath and that’s been the case this year.

Additionally, with the core of high pressure positioned between Scotland and Iceland, the highest temperatures have therefore been over Scotland where the month’s highest temperature was recorded at Tyndrum, Stirlingshire.

Interestingly, this is the first August in which Scotland has recorded the UK’s highest August temperature since 1931 and it’s also the joint coolest UK August maximum with 2017 since 2010. For England, their maximum of 26.4C is the coolest for August since 1986.

With the HP core sliding away from Scandinavia and closer to Iceland, we’ve seen a dramatic temperature flip across Norway, Sweden and Finland from first to second half. While an above normal July, it’s been a cold August for central Europe as seen in the August temperature chart below.

Here’s the August temperature anomaly.

Credit: Michael Ventrice

As we wave fair well to meteorological summer 2021, we enter autumn with a shift in weather pattern. A slow process but high pressure is ready to give way to the return of Atlantic low pressure and ‘hopefully’ some decent rain.

Check out the GFS ensemble rainfall projection and shift in 500mb height anomaly from high to low pressure.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Current 500mb height anomaly

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

This Sunday

Credit: Tropical; Tidbits

NEXT Saturday

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

The CFSv2 weeklies see and show the shift in high from Iceland/N Britain back to Scandinavia but this DOESN’T mean lows bombard the UK but more leave it open to back and forth between continental high pressure and Atlantic low pressure, perhaps a fight mid to late September?

CFSv2

week 1

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

week 2

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

week 3

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

week 4

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

This also opens up the possibility of warmer air lifting north into the UK, perhaps one or two ‘hot spells’ AHEAD of incoming Atlantic fronts? 25C Scotland, 30C England?

CFSv2 for September 2021

500mb height anomaly

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

2m temp anomaly

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Precip anomaly

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

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