Europe July 2021 Outlook

Written by on July 2, 2021 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

June 2021 will go down as a warm month across Europe but not without it’s twists and turns. A pattern dominated largely by high pressure but with southerly positioned cut of lows which made for a very wet June over central and northern France and southern Britain.

Credit: Michael Ventrice

‘Mirror image’ Omega blocking pattern creates extreme weather both sides of the Atlantic

Cut off lows trapped within a high pressure dominated pattern has been the focus throughout the hemisphere this month.

The current 500mb anomaly setup (below) nicely reflects the upper air pattern seen through the 2nd half of June 2021.

Probably the primary omega block goes to North America, secondary for North Atlantic-Europe.

With two waves of heat across the Western US, the 2nd has been outstanding for the Pacific Northwest and Western Canada where DOZENS of all-time heat records have fallen.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

With ridging on both coasts, a trough remains trapped in between bringing 2-3 times the normal rainfall for parts of the S Plains and Southeast extending up into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.

Credit: Michael Ventrice

The omega blocking pattern extended across the Atlantic into Europe where here too we have seen extremes.

Via Matt Hugo

A strong ridge has transferred eastward across Europe as the month has progressed, commencing over Spain, France and UK eventually focusing on central and eastern Europe. During the 2nd half of June when June heat records where tumbling widely in the east, cut off lows have slide into France bringing double the amount of rainfall to central and northern areas extending into the southern UK.

Credit: wxcharts.com

No coincidence that we have seen a similar heat wave over Eastern Europe as Western North America.

Whether the two hot domes on both continent’s are linked or not, the Europe version was not in the same league as the North America version.

As an upper low swung south over the UK, reinforcing the semi-permanent trough over France, cool, clear skies produced the UK’s lowest June temperature since 2012 with Altnaharra, Sutherland dipping to -2.4C.

Another upper low pushed through bringing unusually cool end of June days to many parts of the UK as well as N France, Low Countries and now as we step into July, the heart of Europe (Germany today…).

As we wave goodbye to a relatively fresh close to June, we open July comfortably warm for most unless you live on the North Sea coast.

Low pressure now positioned over Germany has led to height rises over the UK and warmer temps as a result. This ‘warm-up’ is short lived as the next Atlantic low moves in. While not bringing a canopy of heavy rain, it will increase the cloud, shower and thunderstorm threat.

Here’s the 500mb, 2m temp and precip anomaly through July’s opening 8 days.

Like we’ve seen most of June, driest, sunniest and warmest again focused across N Ireland, Scotland and across Scandinavia where we’re seeing mid, possibly upper 20s close to the Arctic Circle. Dullest, wettest across S England, France and heart of Europe.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

The lead low should remain mainly west of Ireland but this opens the door to a developing secondary feature which models see deepening rapidly on approach to the UK from SW. This could present unusually wet and windy conditions, especially for southern parts as it stands currently.

Credit: wxcharts.com

Credit: wxcharts.com

Week 2 and CFSv2 sees the ridge stronger but still centred over Scandinavia. Looks like a continued fight towards southern Britain down into France for lows to try and influence underneath. However, the model has a dry France as well as all of the UK. My hunch is more lows taking that southerly track keeping it average to above average precip and possibly continuing to trim temperatures back.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

As for the 2nd half of the month, I believe we get a spell of sunny, warm to hot weather from Spain to Scandinavia into ALL of the UK. 40C Spain, 38C France, 30C UK and 30C Norway, Sweden but it’s only last 3-5 days before a thundery break down and return to something similar to what we have now.

CFSv2 for July.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

I believe July winds up close to average both precipitation and temperature-wise for much of Western Europe. Hot central and eastern where further records may fall.

Like we saw in June, I recon we get one or two spells of unusually cool July days and nights if we get a push of air off the unusually cool waters to the west of Ireland.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

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