CFSv2 ‘No Use’ As A Long Term Forecast Tool

Written by on April 20, 2021 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Through March and indeed April I’ve harped on and on about the lack of cold seen by the long term modelling. This ‘issue’ continues with nothing but ‘hot high pressure’ for the upcoming May-June-July period. We all know that won’t be the case.

CFSv2 500mb height anomaly for May-July 2021.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Above normal heights equates to above normal surface temperatures. Wow! If our younger generation and ‘climate activists’ get a glimpse of this and take it at face value, no wonder some think our planet is on fire, right?!!

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

I can’t help but think the CFSv2 even for the next 1-3 months has influence and input from the long term climate projections and ‘future warming’.

We know there’s going to be at the very least, ‘pockets’ of cold air, in fact there could be a lingering chill well into May given the late final stratospheric warming and projected -AO/NAO signal with northern blocking remaining stubborn.

The ongoing northern blocking makes sense given the continued cold stratosphere and delay in final warming. This should aid a cool or cold 1st half to May, perhaps cold May generally and in terms of my summer forecast, I’m swaying cool given that often in cases of prolonged dry, the pattern flips to wet and could well for the heart of the warm season this year. We saw this first hand in 2012 and with wet, I believe may come cool.

Below is the latest vertical cross section of the arctic atmosphere. Check out the extreme warmth then cool. Note the warming of the lower atmosphere towards the end of the graphic which coincides with a -AO/NAO into May.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Here is the CFSv2 for May for the hemisphere.

500mb height anomaly

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

2m temps

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Remember what this suggests and ONLY 10 DAYS AWAY. Let’s see what happens.

Perhaps we get a massive flip after a possible cool opening week to 10 days and May winds up warm overall, yes I get that but it simply sees nothing directly in front and that’s more my problem.

When I comes to even attemping a long range forecast but you only go by modelling, forget it!

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