CFSv2 Continues With It’s Warm Bias

Written by on March 9, 2021 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

The CFSv2 weeklies continue to show a blowtorch for Europe next 2-3 weeks, it simply sees ‘no cold’.

Despite the +AO/NAO and ‘lack of winter’ now over Western Europe, there’s still plenty of residual cold floating within the mid latitudes in the wake of the strat warm. The CFSv2 (as usual) no longer sees any cold. This automatically creates a warm bias and so makes the model almost useless.

Thankfully, the GFS ensemble sees this cold air and in the coming days, the chilly, ocean-modified mid-latitude air will get transported speedily east from North America and off Greenland over the UK. This will be most noticeable in the form of high level snow. As for the CFSv2, there’s no cold at all and this is simply nonsense.

The next 2 weeks is simply mild in it’s eyes.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

GFS ensemble suggests a cooling trend day 10-15 following a mild, high pressure dominated day 5-10 (likely but how mild and settled depends upon strength and how far north the high goes).

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

As for the day 10-15, and the cool trend, the GFS ensemble is attempting to send the AO/NAO back towards neutral, maybe slight negative towards the end of the month.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

The cooling seen by GFS ensemble is believable for two reasons, 1) highs and lows continue to move the cold (and warmth) around 2) there was some warming within the lower stratosphere a week or so ago which could lead to a coolish end to March and beginning of April.

Moral of the story is, the models are and have been rather hopeless and hard to go by for guidance. The CFSv2 while has had it’s good moments, has a clear warm bias and just doesn’t see any cold air so therefore the outlook will always be warm.

As has been the case since late Feb. Time will tell.

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