October 2020 was average to below average temperature-wise for much of western Europe, especially so, Ireland, France, northern Spain and Portugal, even Italy. Warmer than normal for Scandinavia and countries east of Germany with exceptional warmth over western Russia and surrounding the Black Sea.
With the tropics a big contributor, the UK overall had it’s 5th wettest October since 1862. As you can see from the graphic below, rainfall was 150-200% of normal from Inverness across Moray and down through Aberdeenshire, as well as parts of northeast England, south Midlands and a large swathe of southern England including Greater London.
It’s been the wettest October in 20 years for the London area with 217% of normal rainfall, 222% of normal across Oxfordshire.
As we progress through November there are two factors I feel fairly confident in, 1) less rain than October and 2) no early taste of winter in sight! Rather than seeing one moisture rich front after another soak their across the UK, rainfall distribution looks quite different going forward as higher pressure in the means looks to dominate much of Europe, particularly Scandinavia.
While not void of rain, the bulk of Atlantic lows will get somewhat deflected SW to NE, keeping more eastern areas of the UK drier.
With a predominantly +AO/NAO, the outlook remains mild through the next 10 days with something cooler for the final week of November. However, I suspect anything colder or at least seasonal is relatively brief.
For the UK/Ireland, the CFSv2 shows a very warm front running 7 days, still mild week 2 and a cool south/mild north UK week 3 but notice the colder east/southeast europe which spreads into southern Britain week 3 as HP sits over Scandinavia possibly pulling colder air westwards underneath.
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