High Latitude Blocking Kicks Brings Hope(fully) And Begins To Lay Down The White Carpet

Written by on October 14, 2020 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

The maturing ‘high latitude blocking pattern’ we currently see may be a real tease to the winter weather lover like myself. I can hear the statement ringing in my ear, ‘if only it were December or January’, I get ya, I’m saying the same.

This 500mb chart off the CFSv2 for the upcoming week and week 2 is a textbook blocking pattern which would support twin cold troughs on both sides of the Atlantic and good snow making for Eurasia.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

However, one good thing about this pattern now, is it’s good for laying down a nice firm and widespread snow cover. This will help expand the building cold reservoir southward.

Credit: AER

There is some long range model confliction with regard to the polar vortex. Some keep it relatively weak while others have it strengthening. On a negative note, remember back to just last year at this time. It followed a previously cold November which brought high expectation (including with me) on a big winter only to see it strengthen and wipe out anything remotely winter-like.

Hopefully this can be a year when what we see now along with the soggy October is a reflection on the pattern down the road with continued weak vortex which allows lobes of warm air to penerate the Arctic and force cold southwards.

ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS

La Nina is back and looking quite strong.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

La Nina events don’t typically support cold winters for Western Europe or Eastern North America. However, first year la nina’s have been known to bring front loaded winters, perhaps helped during a solar minimum). In other words, a decent open to winter (November/December 2010) but often a milder January and February (also like winter 2010-11).

So in terms of La Nina, there’s reason for optimism.

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