The colder-than-normal waters sitting to the west of the UK and Ireland doesn’t appear to be going anywhere anytime soon. In fact the CFSv2 along with other models show it expanding and growing cooler still.
Here’s the current SST anomaly for the North Atlantic.
The CFSv2 for July has the cool SST anomaly expand and intensify.
It remains there along with a cooling North Sea too for August.
Back at the end of May and through the first 10 days of June, the North Sea was notably cooler than normal following an unusual early May ‘cold spell’ and this was reflective on the land temps down the east side of the UK through the 1st half of June.
The CFSv2 500mb height anomaly chart for July has a positive NAO signal with N Atlantic trough and UK-Europe ridge. A slightly deeper and further east trough-ridge position and mean winds cross those cool waters.
August
That setup would surely keep Scotland and Northern Ireland in the more changeable, cooler regime while south and east is always best for drier, sunnier and warmer weather. As stated in my recent monthly outlook, I believe there will be a fight in July between Icelandic LP and Azores HP. August looks more troughy and disappointingly cool.
CFSv2 2m temp anomaly
July
August
The model is seeing the cold water for sure and it’s reflective of the 2m temp.
Summer 2015 had the cold NE Atlantic/warm North Sea and we had some big swings in temperature from record warm to record cold. 2016 too was very mixed due to the presence of the cold Atlantic.
If this comes close to holding true then the 2020 forecast is looking good!
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