Europe July 2020 Outlook

Written by on June 25, 2020 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

June 2020 has been a changeable month with some spots seeing below normal rainfall, for others, considerably above normal. That’s the nature of thunderstorms and their localized nature.

The first half of June was cool over Ireland and UK and downright chilly from Iberia to Italy, largely down to cloudier than normal skies and frequent heavy rainfall. For the UK, the colder-than-normal North Sea produced a quite noteworthy temperature deficit down the eastern side of the UK.

These were the temps compared to normal for the first half of June.

Credit: Michael Ventrice

The cold waters helped lock in the haar down the east coast while it was warm and sunny further west.

Credit: Mark Vogan

Thanks to the presence of low pressure progressing north from the Bay of Biscay, a very active thunderstorm period occurred across England and Wales between the 15-20th.

Credit: BBC Weather

This brought a true end to the arid past 2 months. and now, low pressure has, at least for a time, shifted west and allowed the dominant Scandinavian high to take charge, drawing hot, continental air north from Spain. While it’s a 2, possibly 3 straight days of 30+C for SE England, it’s a quick 1-day blast of summer heat for Scotland as the Atlantic only truly hangs back for a mere 24-hours.

The first 30C was reached at Heathrow, London yesterday (32.6C). While southern and eastern Scotland was pleasant, it was somewhat fresher to the west and north thanks to the presence of a lingering front.

Credit: Meteoceil

32-34C is possible in a triangle from Birmingham to Cardiff to London while 28, possibly 29C could be reached across southern central Scotland. The BBC has 30C around Aviemore.

Credit: BBC Weather

As it stands, here is the monthly temperature anomaly across Europe.

Credit: Michael Ventrice

June to end on a fresher but stormy note

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

As the low tightens and tracks north, fresh Atlantic winds blow in.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Today PM

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Sunday PM

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

JULY HEATWAVE? Waters Significantly Warm In Baltic, Med Seas While North Atlantic Is Chilly

Could the below SST anomaly be telling us where our land temperatures are going for the heart of summer this year?

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Last 7 days show the cooling Atlantic vs warming North, Norwegian, Baltic & Black Seas

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

There’s no surprise that the Norwegian, North, Baltic and Blank Seas have all significantly warmed in recent weeks as the surrounding land mass has been running 5-10C above normal for the past couple of weeks. However, the northeast Atlantic continues to cool and you can see that cooling trend nicely in the below graphic.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

The North Atlantic cold pool that was present a few summers ago and played a key role in summer temperatures for Western Europe is back as seen in the below SST anomaly for the North Atlantic.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

This could act as an ice cube to the atmosphere and if winds blow off this cold water, we could see some pretty cool days over Ireland and UK by mid-summer standards with even downright cold summer days/nights similar to what we saw in July 2015.

The CFSv2 is holding a mean trough over the northeast Atlantic and just above the cool pool for July.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

An Icelandic low/Azores high setup (similar to winter) would keep winds blowing off this cold pool and across the UK keeping it naggingly cool and wet. THIS FITS MY OVERALL THINKING FOR THE SUMMER.

2m temperature anomaly for July off the CFSv2.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Precip anomaly for July mirrors nicely the 500mb height anomaly above.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

That Northeast Atlantic cold pool is likely to do it’s dirty work and keep at least much of Ireland, Northern Ireland and Scotland stubbornly cool and often damp with warmer, sunnier weather from Iberia to Scandinavia. England and Wales should see a back and fourth, a fight between the Icelandic low and Azores high.

I see a couple of short, sharp bursts of heat out of Spain into England but like we have now, it’s brief with lower pressure never far away.

For central and northern Europe, we could see prolonged heat but for south-central and east Europe, thunderstorms could be frequent through July.

FEATURED IMAGE CREDIT: Jon Gustafsson

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