The summer’s first major hot spell is now building thanks to the expansion of a strong Scandinavian blocking high which shall push out fresh Atlantic air and pull in hot, continental air.
This high can be seen strengthening west and south from Scandinavia on the GFS 500mb height anomaly chart below and will act as a heat pump by lifting hot air from Iberia northward.
While Scotland has seen some changeable conditions and even a fair amount of rain tomorrow (Tuesday), the heat quickly builds and focuses on England and Wales.
An air mass separating frontal boundary will keep Northern Ireland and Scotland in the fresh, cloudy, rainy Atlantic air Tuesday but east and south of the front and under a powerful post solstice sun, temps rise sharp across England and Wales.
While the year’s first 30C is expected Wednesday, the warm, humid continental air will begin to push into Scotland where sun and showers is likely.
Thursday looks warmest for Scotland as the hot air manages to get north of the border. We could strike 27 or possibly 28C in the Central Lowlands or central Highlands with possible thunderstorm developing while 30-32C could be widespread across the Midlands and South with the aid of strengthening SE winds.
Friday sees the close enough approach of Atlantic low pressure for temperatures trim in western areas as the heat peaks over central and eastern England. The Southeast could see 33, maybe 34C.
By the weekend, low pressure sweeps a front across the UK bringing a significant thundery breakdown.
We’re back beneath the trough early next week.
This image represents where #Heatwave thresholds will probably be met or exceeded later this week. pic.twitter.com/3iC3OCTho2
— Met Office (@metoffice) June 22, 2020
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