We’ve went from an omega blocking pattern over the UK through much of May to a Scandinavia high-over Iberia/France trough so far this June. This has kept it very warm and dry across Scandinavia and unusually wet and cool across South-central and Southwest Europe.
The current 2m temp anomaly for June so far says it at.
Credit: Michael Ventrice
As we head into June’s 2nd half it appears the upper levels will shift once again with more of an Icelandic trough/Azores ridge setup developing. This cuts off the persistent thunderstorm pulses going off over England and Wales as by warming the mid and upper levels via a southwesterly tropical-maritime flow, it shuts down the ‘lift’ for t-storm/shower production. Before the change, Scotland shall get in on some of the thunderstorm action over the next couple of days as building surface warmth rises into the cool pool aloft. This shift brings the most noticeable change to a much warmer, drier Spain, Portugal and France. Nearest the trough, fresher, wetter and windier conditions arrive in Scotland as well as possibly Northern Ireland.
Note the shift in GFS ensemble between the front running 5 days vs following 5-day at 500mb.
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Even the 11-15 day which takes us into July.
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Note in the same time increments how the warmth pushes south and west.
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
While much of Europe remains warm where it has been, the big change is the warm-up over Iberia and France.
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