Is Current SST Anomalies & Upper Pattern Providing A Preview To Summer 2020?

Written by on June 11, 2020 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

After one of the warmest, wettest 2nd half’s to winter followed by the driest, sunniest spring, we are now seeing the return of rains just as folks wonder if another summer 2018 was on it’s way. Nature has an amazing way at fooling us, keeping us on our toes as well as attempting to find balance.

Waters surrounding the UK are cooler than normal feeding the cooler than normal first half to June. With cooler waters to the north and warmer than normal waters over the Bay of Biscay, the atmosphere is supporting a nice feedback of northern high pressure and lower pressure over the warmer, southerly waters.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Surface temps have been below normal this month so far across southern Europe and up into the UK, reflective of surrounding cool waters and increased rainfall lifting northwards.

Credit: Michael Ventrice

CFSv2 shows the northern ridge, southern trough. Cool water = high pressure… warm water = low pressure.

week 1 mean 500mb height anomaly

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

week 2 is similar but not as pronounced with either ridge or trough.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

This upper air setup supports the continuation of a dry northern Europe and wetter southern Europe with pulses of energy migrating north in the form of showers and thunderstorms, fueled by the powerful June sunshine.

The next several days shall see further heavy, torrential showers, thunderstorms and longer spells of rain over southern Europe and up over Iberia, France and the UK/Ireland associated with a wheel of low pressure spinning over the Bay of Biscay. The overall lower atmospheric heights makes for cooler mid and upper levels and combined with strong June sunshine this translates to enhanced instability and lift or upward motion for the development of thunderstorms.

Local flash flooding can be expected ANYWHERE storms develop and this includes the UK, even as far north of Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Below is the CFSv2 precipitation anomaly and note the ‘wetter’ than normal (green) focuses on the area of below normal heights (below), drier than normal beneath the higher pressure (red)

week 1

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

week 2

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

The CFSv2 2m temp anomaly sees modest warmth but plenty of humidity which will make it FEEL warmer over the UK in the coming days despite the increased potential for thunderstorm development.

week 1

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

week 2 sees it average or below average.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Through the rest of June, I expect to see the continuation of quite unsettled conditions and below average temps stretching from Italy to Iberia up the the UK.

If you’ve read my summer forecast then you’ll know I have a largely unsettled and potentially quite cool summer overall. The current setup will certainly help moisten up the soils and this along with warming waters surrounding the UK should lead to low rather than high pressure dominating in July and August.

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