Europe June 2020 Outlook (Sunniest, driest UK spring )

Written by on May 31, 2020 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

It’s been a May of stark rainfall and temperature contrasts. Thanks to the presence of an Atlantic weather front, heavy and persistent rain fell widely across Northwest Scotland with 141mm of rain fell within 48 hours at Achngart in Glen Shiel.

In contrast, Benson, Oxfordshire has seen NO RAIN this month due to persistent high pressure overhead. So, while the West Highlands has seen over 150% of normal rain this month, many parts of the south and east have barely scraped 5% of normal rain.

Credit: Dan Holley
@danholley_

This comes on the heels of a very dry April and so the two very dry months combined has led to the sunniest and driest spring on record for England as well as the entire UK overall.

Temperatures have been equally as extreme with the coldest UK May night since 1997, Northern Ireland’s coldest May night since 1982 as well as countless sites receiving their coldest May nights in 20 to 40 years.

Credit: Dan Holley

Credit: BBC Weather

Then as we come out the other end of the month and it’s opposite. Kinlochewe, Highland has been the UK hotspot Friday with a high of 28.0C followed by 27C yesterday.

Credit: Meteoceil

In the temperature swing department, May 2020 has a good deal of similarity to 2012 which also started off unseasonably cool. 2012 saw the coldest first half to a May in 300 years but finished record warm with Glasgow setting a new May heat benchmark of 27.1C. Inverailort, Highland reached an astonishing 30.9C setting a new May heat record for Scotland.

Just 3 years ago, Lossiemouth, Moray topped 29.4C. Yes May can bring our warmest weather of an entire year. I’m going with the scenario. If it’s get’s dry and warm early, it ends early.

In between the chill of the beginning and warmth of the end, we also contended with an unseasonably deep Atlantic low which produced gale or near gale-force conditions as well as heavy rain to the NW.

Credit: Met Office

May ends and June begins on a warm, dry note

Thank the current position of the MJO (Indian Ocean), current SST profile and of course the lack of rain since mid March, we’ve been dominated by a persistent omega blocking pattern. The feedback of ocean-land to atmosphere simply continues unbroken unless there’s a shift somewhere else. No shift has come and is unlikely to come over the next couple of weeks to break this high pressure dominated setup.

Omega blocks once established can be hard to break.

Credit: Scott From Scotland
@ScottDuncanWX

While temperatures trim slightly as the ridge core becomes elongated west-east across Northern Europe, we end May and say hello to both June and summer 2020 on the warm, sunny and dry note we’ve gotten so use to.

Note in the below charts for the upcoming 7-day period, the lower heights across southern and southeast to east central Europe and strong positive heights across the top. Remaining warm and dry for north, cool and unsettled across south and east Europe for the next 48 hours! East, southeast winds making for a ‘west is best’ policy for the UK.

Here’s the next 7 days off the CFSv2.

500mb anomaly

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

2m temp anomaly

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Precipitation

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Week 2 sees a split and shift in the high which goes both west and east of the UK. This brings a considerably cooler, fresher air flow out of the north and east, the other piece of the high moves into northeast Europe.

As you can see for the 7-14 day period which takes us into mid June, we have a trough on the east, southeast side of the UK.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

While I’m not convinced, the CFSv2 has week 3 and 4 which sees the return of a west-east northerly high with trough to the south of the UK followed by stronger pressure and more widespread warmth.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Temperature-wise, the UK goes below normal while east Europe goes above in week 2 but then we flip again week 3 and 4 as the high returns. Iberia is well below normal while NW Russia is well above.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

For the month as a whole…

June 500mb height anomaly

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

2m temperature anomaly

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Precipitation anomaly

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

In my opinion, June overall looks drier than normal across the north and wet across the south of Europe with ups and downs in temperature. However, the current Indian Ocean MJO position appears to be maintaining the northern positive height field but if this shifts and I believe it will as well as adjustment in SST’s, there will be a bigger shift in the upper air pattern.

The tropics and cyclone activity will also be needing watched as development and responsive northerly heat release of course alters the downstream pattern.

FEATURED IMAGE CREDIT: Alpenweerman @Alpenweerman

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