Seasonal Shift, MJO ‘Gear Change’ and Cool SST’s Turns Soggy Atlantic Pattern Into Drier, Warmer Regime For UK

Written by on April 7, 2020 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

The global driving mechanisms of ENSO, IOD and MJO which drove the hemisphere’s warmest winter and UK’s wettest February on record have finally changed gear but much too late for the snow and cold lover unfortunately. As a result of this ‘gear change’ combined with the natural seasonal shift, the westerlies have slackened and ridging has been allowed to reform over Alaska and North Atlantic with continental air masses replacing maritime over both North America and Europe.

While the main theme becomes ‘cool to cold’ for central and eastern North America, it’s all about the ‘much drier’ theme for Western Europe. Heat looks to become more and more of a recurring aspect of this setup.

The shift is down to the IOD shifting from positive in autumn to negative during mid winter while the MJO which was firmly entrenched and refusing to leave the warm phases of 5, 6 and 7, it’s now progressing through 8, 1 and 2 which supports a continuation of a drier, more ridgy pattern for the UK and Western Europe.

I anticipate a potentially ‘very warm’ period between April 15-25 where temps go 5-10C above normal widely from London to Berlin.

CFSv2 sees high pressure holding. In terms of temperature, maximum warmth comes with a ridge just to the south and east which draws air from Africa. I suspect this position could be achieved mid to late month.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

The cool North Atlantic could help cut down rainfall…

As we progress through April, it’s also worth pointing out the amount of cooling over both North Atlantic and northeast Pacific verses warmth over the tropical basins. This along with a potential La Nina developing over the equatorial Pacific could be significant to the hemisphere’s summer pattern as well as hurricane season. Stay tuned!

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