Europe September 2019 Outlook

Written by on September 3, 2019 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Like June and July, August has been bumpy bringing big swings in weather type and temperature. Rainfall from June through mid August has been heaver than usual with flash flood events in high frequency and these have affected many parts of the UK and Ireland.

However, August has been somewhat cooler and more unsettled than June and July with less blocking and therefore more influence off the Atlantic.

We’ve witnessed several lows sweep wind and rain across the UK and much of Western Europe. Some of these lows have been unusually deep for the time of year. A likely contributor to these deeper and WETTER than normal Atlantic lows is the much warmer than normal North Atlantic.

Credit: MetDesk

Atlantic sea surface temperatures were very warm to start August and with more active UK bound weather travelling over this warm water, we often see more rainfall than normal.

With far less high and mid latitude blocking and more free flowing air travelling across the Atlantic and into Europe instead of Africa, temperatures have been less hot compared to June and July.

In fact it was a normal to below normal month temperature-wise from Portugal to Russia. Of course the summer of 2019 will go down as one of the coolest for western Russia in decades.

Credit: Michael Ventrice

All 3 meteorological summer months end with record heat

Like we saw in both June and July, August too concluded with a heat wave of record proportion.

June closed with France hitting an all-time record 45.9C, July ended with the UK setting a new all-time record of 38.7C and August has produced the hottest end of August bank holiday on record with 33.4C recorded in southeast England. In fact we’ve seen 4 consecutive 30C days and 3 of 33C.

The previous end of August bank holiday record was 31.5C set back in 2001.

Glasgow reached 28.7C, unusually warm for late summer.

August ends on a cooler and much wetter note.

The final days of the month saw heavy and persistent rain drive into the northwest UK thanks to a stuck weather front extending well out into the subtropical Atlantic. With this front funneling a rain band over warm Atlantic waters, combined with the orographic influence of the Northwest Highlands locally 4 or 5 inches fell within 72 hours.

Credit: weatheronline


Will Hurricane Dorian dictate Western Europe’s weather through first 10 days of September?

Dorian strengthened into a record breaking category 5 monster as it stalled and wrecked havoc of the Bahamas. The latest downstream presence of this storm means we have a fairly strong high to it’s northeast over the mid north Atlantic but because it’s southwest of the UK and Ireland, we continue to see weather fronts associated with low pressure track from NW to SE bringing a cool air flow with frequent spells of rain or showers.

This setup means below normal temperatures for September’s opening week.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Whether Dorian makes a US landfall or not, the general model consensus takes Dorian up the US East Coast and transitions it into an extra tropical low with impact on Iceland likely.

This track supports ridge building into the UK through week 2 and particularly week 3.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

So, an eventual settling down of the weather is likely through the 2nd half of September.

Month of September overall

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits


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