Europe August 2019 Outlook

Written by on July 31, 2019 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Summer 2019 will be long remembered for it’s big extremes of ALL-TIME record heat, record cold and record rainfall. Some of the very areas which saw record July cold was followed by not only record July heat but all-time record heat.

The wild July was followed by an equally wild June which saw spells of exceptional cool followed by heavy flooding rain finished off with off-the-charts heat for France in which France observed it’s hottest day in history with a high of 45.9C. July saw record cool, record rain and within the last 10 days, the hottest few days ever observed across Western Europe.

Both June and July saw an extreme meridional or blocked weather pattern.

A flat jet flow drives Atlantic modified maritime air into Western Europe but a blocked wavy jet allows air from Africa to track north while further downstream, Arctic air pours south.

This results in blistering heat for the west and unusually cool conditions for the east.

Credit: Weatherbell

Blame a record long -NAO which attributed to the persistent and extreme nature of the amplified pattern.

Subtle east-west and west-east shifts in the blocked pattern meant extreme heat but also extreme cool too though the heat completely dominated Western Europe overall.

The end of June and end of July heatwaves saw this upper air setup.

Credit: weather.com

Ahead of Europe’s 2nd historic heat wave, the UK and London saw it’s first ever 39C forecasted.

Credit: Met Office

In reality, it happened!

The UK joined 5 other countries in setting a new all-time record high.

Though it may be hard to remember, all-time July record lows were achieved ahead of the heat.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

New all-time low temperature records set in Germany,Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Hungary, Poland, the Netherlands, as well as the Nordic Nations

So, a record cold start was followed by a record warm finish to July 2019.

How’s the rest of August and summer looking?

As summer has progressed, the North Atlantic has warmed significantly. This points to wetter times ahead for western Europe, especially as a more Atlantic pattern makes a return.

June 1

July 1

August 1

Current sea surface temperatures between Canada and Europe are warm and with a likely west to southwest upper flow increasing, this points to wetter.

CFSv2 7-day mean 500mb height anomaly

Atlantic low pressure looks to dominate

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

7-day mean precipitation anomaly

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

FEATURED IMAGE CREDIT: Tornadotitan @TORNADOTITAN

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