Europe July 2019 Outlook

Written by on July 6, 2019 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

June, like February, March, April and May has been dominated by wild swings in temperature.

One of the key contributors of Europe’s extreme pattern and flips has been down to a record long-lasting negative North Atlantic Oscillation.

The -NAO has aided a continuous amplified/blocked pattern. These blocked setups allow extreme heat north and extreme cool south. A slight shift east and west of this block and regions go from record cool to record warm within very short periods of time.

A spell of record or near record cold dominated the west while record heat dominated the east but during the second half of the month, the very areas coolest observed national June heat records.

While the Baltic nations and western Russia sweated their hottest June days on record, some of the coolest June weather was experienced from Spain to Scotland.

June 7 temperatures across Europe.

Credit: Meteoceil

June 11th likely went down as one of the coldest mid-June days for parts of England and Wales.

Credit: Meteoceil

Two days after England and Wales shivered, it was one of the coldest mid-June days you’ll ever see for Scotland.

Credit: Meteoceil


Then came the second half of the month and that ridge parked itself over the very same area the trough was firmly entrenched.

From coolest June days to warmest. A remarkable flip in extremes.


Despite the heat being widespread with 30C reached over west-Highland Scotland, the epicentre of the heat was across southern France and northeast Spain where Saharan 40’s was common.

Credit: Meteoceil

A new all-time record high achieved in France.

New national June heat records were broken in Germany, Poland and Czech Republic.

Now that we’re well into July, the pattern has once again flipped and RECORD cool is back in the very areas which fried late June.

How’s the rest of July looking?

CFSv2 weeklies indicate an eastward progression of the anomalously deep trough and cool air mass. Beyond 7 days we gradually replace the trough with a ridge which promotes warmer, drier conditions once again. We simply continue with the seesaw of very wet spells and dry. When dry, it could turn hot with room for another record hot spell the final 10 days of July.

7-day mean 500mb high anomalies.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Overall, it’s a dry outlook for central and western areas, wet across the south through the remainder of July.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits


Tornadotitan @TORNADOTITAN

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