Despite a warmer middle part of May (especially for Scotland and Scandinavia), the month is winding up below normal throughout central and west-central Europe. Like in April, warmth has been the rule over Russia.
A dry first half to the month has given way to a wetter 2nd half and a downright soggy finish for Northern Ireland and Scotland.
There will be further outbreaks of #rain for Scotland, northern England and Northern Ireland into tomorrow ?️
The highest totals are expected to be in western #Scotland ?? pic.twitter.com/Ifmy2xMLqV
— Met Office (@metoffice) May 30, 2019
We close May with heavy rain over Northern Ireland and Scotland and shall commence June tomorrow with temperatures close to 30C in SE England.
With exceptions of northern Scandinavia and parts of the Balkans, warmth dominates Europe on this final day of meteorological autumn 2019.
June and summer 2019’s opening week shall see low pressure positioned just west of the UK keeping the unsettled Atlantic theme alive. High pressure dominates much of Europe with a core positioned over western Russia. A cutoff low looks to continue feeding cooler, unsettled conditions into parts of the Balkans.
2m temp anomaly week 1
Cool Ireland and Scotland, warm Germany, Poland.
Precip anomaly week 1
Wet UK and Balkans, drier elsewhere.
Interestingly as we head into week 2 of June, the CFSv2 sees the return of a Scandinavian blocking high which like we’ve seen through mid-May could retrograde west bringing drier and more settled conditions to the UK.
2m temp anomaly week 2
Core of heat shifts east into Baltics.
Precip anomaly week 2
Drier UK, France, wetter Germany.
Week 3 sees a complete 360 to week 1 with high pressure just west of the UK. Exact positioning of this potential high would indeed dictate where the air is coming from but this points to drier than normal weather for West Europe, more changeable further south and east, especially Iberia.
2m temp anomaly week 3
Precip anomaly week 3
Week 4 sees the high return to Scandinavia once again.
2m temp anomaly week 4
Precip anomaly week 4
To summerise, I believe a cool, wet open to June for the Northwest of Europe will be replaced by a warmer, drier mid and late month. It’s a very warm first 10 days for much of mainland Europe except the Balkans and Scandinavia.
FEATURED IMAGE CREDIT: Alexis Dion-Limet @a_dionlimet
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