Warm, Sunny open to Summer 2019 looks increasingly likely for UK, Scandinavia

Written by on May 13, 2019 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

My hunch in my 2019 summer forecast may be coming to fruition as we enter mid-May. The consensus in most models show high pressure remaining largely dominant over or just north of Scotland through most of the remainder of May and into June. Give or take a few interruptions.

With spells of lower heights down towards Biscay, there’s a threat of more unsettled weather for France, possibly Iberia which could periodically extend north. However, overall a drier, sunnier and therefore warmer regime looks to persist into June for Scotland and Scandinavia. If that’s the case, then warm to very warm spells look more likely in June, possibly late May given the dry ground and cool surrounding waters. This tends to feedback to warmer, drier weather and high pressure.

As you can see from the below CFSv2 weeklies. Heights remain strong through the next 4 weeks but a chance at more unsettled next week before HP returns.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

week 2

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

week 3

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Week 4

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

On the whole, precipitation looks pretty sparse the further north you are through the next 3 weeks.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Week 2 and 3 could be changeable and will be interesting to see much much water we get into the ground.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits


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