Huge ‘upside down’ weather & temperature variation across Europe next week

Written by on May 10, 2019 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

The UK is in the cold air to end the week but through the weekend change arrives from the west as a deepening low tracks west to east across southern England/northern France bringing wind and gales, eventually this feature reaches Italy late Sunday into Monday.

As the low drifts into Italy, our cold pool leaves with it and brings an unseasonable shot of cold into the Balkans but temperatures of up to 15C below normal will affect much of central Europe.

The below GFS surface/precip chart shows the low tracking east then southeast but notice the building of pressure over the UK. This will significantly settle things down here. The high builds NW from Russia and east from the Atlantic. With warming under these highs, Scandinavia stays cool under lower heights.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Watch what happens at 500mb as this low punches into south/central Europe. Like pushing your fist into a balloon, the balloon (high pressure) stretches and swells either side of your fist (low pressure).

The Russian high is of course a different anticyclone to the high building north from Portugal into Scotland but both are bulging around the penetrating cold cut off low. Essentially warmth surrounds the cold trapped within the low with heights don’t rise over Scandinavia until later next week.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

While the Alps should see a few fresh feet, rare May snow shall fall over parts of Croatia, Serbia and Bosnia as well as central Italy. Wouldn’t be surprised to see both record snow and cold in this area

Credit: wxcharts.eu

Check out the GFS 12z Tuesday temperatures. Mid-20s for northwest Russia, low 20s possible for Scotland around the Moray Firth and Central Belt, mid-30s Portugal and southwest Spain but under the influence of the cold cut off, only mid-10s for much of France and could see mid single figures right up against the Adriatic coast.

Ceredigion

2m temperature anomalies are impressive for both heat and cold. Note the area of cold is sizable, encompassing much of central Europe and to a lesser severity, Scandinavia.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Rural frost Saturday and Sunday morning.

As the high builds and clears out cloud and kills any wind, expect a cold couple of mornings ahead, especially Sunday morning with some Highland Glens could push -6C.

Credit: wxcharts.eu

Credit: wxcharts.eu

Scotland to see warmest temperatures next week?

It’s actually Scotland and possibly western fringes of England and Wales which look to see the warmest temperatures next week. The key is the position of the high which centres over Scotland and or the northern North Sea which means cool easterlies blowing around the under side of the high will in fact keep it cooler for much of England and Wales (13-20C).

Scotland? Expect widely 16-21C, locally 24C.

Credit: wxcharts.eu

Credit: wxcharts.eu

 

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