Europe May 2019 Outlook

Written by on April 24, 2019 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

The month opened cold in the west and warm in the east across the continent but into April’s second week and the persistent Scandinavian block built south flipping the temperature pendulum the other way.

This high has been the driver to April, both giving and taking.

Just look at how dramatic the temperatures swung over the UK with that southward shift in the high.

Highs on 14th vs 22nd.

Credit: Meteoceil

Credit: Meteoceil

Both Edinburgh and Dublin set new April heat records. Interestingly just last April, Edinburgh recorded it’s coldest April day.

The cold anomaly of the first 10 days was obliterated thanks to the strength of warm spell.

Credit: Michael Ventrice

Say goodbye to summer…

As for the remaining days of April, we’re back to an Atlantic low pressure dominated pattern. The high is kicked into NE Europe.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

The CFSv2 5-day mean 500mb height anomaly shows the trough digging into Western Europe. Within the wet and windy conditions of the upcoming weekend, we could see several parts of the UK struggle to hit 10C!

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

With low pressure comes wet and windy weather.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

The million dollar question

My current thinking is that it could go either way in May…!

Current global SST’s.

Ok, so I am in two very different minds with regards to May, I’m struggling to decide what way to go with this. The reason is that we have a weak El Nino developing, waters surrounding the UK are above normal. These two factors alone ‘could’ support a turn to wetter conditions in May.

However… though waters are warm around the UK, they are cool across much of the North Atlantic. This could promote 1) Atlantic trough/UK ridge and 2) with a push of cooler maritime air into the UK over the next week or so, it wouldn’t take a whole lot to push the cool water eastwards in and around the UK.

Importance of cool water vs dry land can, like we saw last year, support above normal heights and therefore warmer and drier than normal conditions over the UK and Western Europe extending up into Scandinavia.

Another factor I’m considering is the warm winter just gone, cold start to April followed by an early taste of summer within a developing El Nino have been connected to wet summers.

Remember 2012. Warm winter, very dry and record warm February and March, cold open to April but that April turned very wet and sowed the seeds to one of our wettest summers.

CFSv2 says warm, dry May

CFSv2 says the strongest mean height for the month will be positioned over Biscay and extend north into the UK and Ireland.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

No surprise then that it gives a well above normal month for temperature.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

With above normal heights and dry ground below, there tends to be less than normal rainfall.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

We are returning to a more unsettled pattern but is it a sign of a bigger change or a bump on the warm, dry road? I SHALL GO WITH THE CFSv2 AND IT’S WARM, DRY SOLUTION. No two El Ninos are the same and the SST profile is different to 2012 right?

MY SUMMER 2019 FORECAST WILL BE RELEASED 1 MAY, STAY TUNED!

FEATURED IMAGE CREDIT: Peter Chisholm @thetrekpete

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