February 2019 will go down as my biggest monthly bust since first issuance of them back in February 2014 and one of the biggest 2nd half to winter busts since 2009. What was expected to be a very cold and snowy month has likely turned out to be one of the warmest on record for the UK.

Scotland, Wales, England, UK record warmest February days on record & UK’s warmest for winter

February’s remarkable record streak started off in Scotland with a high of 18.3C recorded in Aboyne, Aberdeenshire which surpassed the previous Scottish February record of 17.9C set in Aberdeen back an incredible 122 years ago.

While warmth has been dominant following the cold start to the month which ironically saw the temperature dip below -15C in Braemar on the 1st (coldest for Scotland since 2010), yesterday, the 25th has been historically warm on FOUR levels.

1) a new February record was achieved for Wales, 2) a new monthly record was set for England 3) a new monthly record was set for the whole UK 4) the UK’s warmest daytime winter temperature on record fell.

How warm? Trawsgoed, Ceredigion, Wales was the place to be today by looking and feeling more like late May or early June with a high reaching 20.6C. This surpassed the previous monthly and winter UK record high of 19.7C set in Greenwich, London on 13 February, 1998. The thermometer also exceeded 20C at Hampton Water Works with 20.1C. This exceeds England’s previous February record high of 19.7C set in 1998.

Then came yesterday and it reaches 21.2C at Kew, London.

Kew Gardens has reached 21.2 °C which is the UK's new maximum temperature record for February, winter and the year so far 🌡️☀️ pic.twitter.com/liP2MudHAa

— Met Office (@metoffice) February 26, 2019

Woolacombe, North Devon today ☀️ pic.twitter.com/XRyABXZJDF

— BBC Weather (@bbcweather) February 26, 2019

Dry, clear, calm air allows 22C difference within 12 hours

Bala, Gwynedd was the coldest spot in Wales this morning dipping to -2.3 °C but reached 20.0 °C today; a diurnal range of over 22 degrees 🌡️ pic.twitter.com/skiwmg3pNC

— Met Office (@metoffice) February 25, 2019

Warmest February night

On top of the record warm days, it’s been confirmed that a minimum of 13.9C recorded Saturday morning at Achnagart, Highland made for the UK’s warmest February night on record. This surpasses the previous record of 13.7C set in 1998 at Aboyne, Aberdeenshire.

Following another day of maximum #temperature records here in the UK, we are now able to confirm that on Saturday morning Achnagart in Scotland recorded the UK's highest daily minimum temperature for February, with 13.9 °C. The previous record stood at 13.7 °C in Aboyne 13.2.1998 pic.twitter.com/sZxK0KIdRZ

— Met Office (@metoffice) February 25, 2019

All the typical UK weather has went south… Cold, very snowy for some

Qutie some snow in Sariyer, Istanbul at sea level on Saturday's night, Feb 23rd. This was the biggest snowfall we had in 2 years. Thanks to Berkehan Taha for the report! pic.twitter.com/8YNlmwbgob

— severe-weather.EU (@severeweatherEU) February 26, 2019

 

An incredible amount of snow at the Parnassos mountain, central Greece with 3-4 meters of snow accumulation, locally even up to 6 meters! Feb 26th. Thanks to Kostas Dimou for the report! pic.twitter.com/6dgoB04neG

— severe-weather.EU (@severeweatherEU) February 26, 2019

Deep snow drifts in İstanbul-Çatalca, Turkey yesterday, Feb 24th. Source: Meteorolojik Tahminler ve Bilgiler pic.twitter.com/NpwwccuZdV

— severe-weather.EU (@severeweatherEU) February 25, 2019

Major waves on Paul do Mar, Madeira yesterday, Feb 24. Report: Lino Ventura / Meteo Tras os Montes pic.twitter.com/bzHD9gQ2uc

— severe-weather.EU (@severeweatherEU) February 25, 2019

One of the worst storms Malta has ever seen, Sliema city, Malta on Feb 24th. Report: The Weather Page Malta pic.twitter.com/CikydggYcT

— severe-weather.EU (@severeweatherEU) February 26, 2019

Severe Bura winds in Mostar, BiH resulted in overturned trucks this past Saturday, Feb 23rd. Report: Sanja Merzić pic.twitter.com/lz3k73THXJ

— severe-weather.EU (@severeweatherEU) February 26, 2019

Two highs, VERY different weather.

Last February was driven by high pressure and this February has too but the contrast couldn’t be any greater…

While we enjoy t-shirt weather and the warmest ever February days, this very time last year, we were entering the grip of the UK’s coldest ever end to February and beginning to March.

Upper air pattern difference between February 2018 and 2019.

28 February 2018.

21 February, 2019

2 metre anomaly difference.

February 2019

Nice comparison shots

Why the persistent late April pattern in February?

The NAO has been positive while the AO has been strongly positive, this has aided the persistence of this pattern.

Last year at this time.

This year

The position of an unusually strong area of high pressure has rerouted Atlantic weather north and south of the UK and drawn warm air northwards from the Canaries and Africa. The lack of cooling snow cover and dry ground has helped further dry out this air mass. So much so that the strengthening February sun was used to it’s full potential.

All these factors have allowed temperatures to rise uniformly 5-10C above the seasonal average. One final aspect needs to be added in order to explain the very localized 2-4C higher temperatures than surrounding areas.. the downslope or foehn effect.

Will winter return in March? Unlikely!

Based on what we’ve seen and the fact that the MJO is amplifying into phases 1, 2 and 3 over the next few weeks, I see little winter left this year. We shall return to a more typical unsettled Atlantic pattern then turn to mild and dry like we have now perhaps into week 2 and 3 of March.

CFSv2 indicates a trough centred south of Iceland (wet and windy, esp north and west) followed by building high pressure over Europe backing westwards.

Warmer than normal would be a given with the above 500mb means

Featured image credit: Iain Cameron

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