Snow chances on the increase for UK but where, when, how much?

Written by on January 18, 2019 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

We all know it’s turning colder as a direct consequence of the late December sudden stratospheric warming. In fact as our tropospheric winds reverse from west to east, the stratospheric winds are returning to a westerly as the vortex up at 10hpa begins to recover. Thankfully for cold weather lovers like myself, this cold spell is only just beginning.

However nailing down the details is difficult.

For me, the big questions are where and how much snow will be see across Western Europe and more importantly, the UK and Ireland. How much snow cover we get will ultimately determine how cold it gets. The positive factor is that despite the days gradually getting longer, this cold pattern is arriving at the coldest time of year.

We have had and continue to see hit and miss snowfall over the UK. The most organised in the last 36 hours has been over northern and eastern parts of the UK and tonight as a front slides eastward, we are seeing rain, sleet and snow but nothing significant.

Through the weekend the snow risk is fairly low and isolated but into early next week, according to the latest models, we have a fairly strong front moving in from the Atlantic. This could present our first significant, even disruptive snow.





The GFS has this snow cover by Thursday.


Interestingly the snow depth jumps big time between Thursday and Friday but there’s nothing to suggest a big snowfall.


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