A Rather Boring Christmas to New Year week but the calm before the cold?

Written by on December 26, 2018 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Well I hope you all had a wonderful Christmas. Now we’re in that gap between Christmas and New Year festivities and the weather is not particularly exciting to say the least. No cold, no snow, no storms but parked between weather systems which aren’t moving that much due to a relatively slow upper flow.

Briefly looking back at Christmas Day, after a cold Christmas Eve with places failing to get above freezing, there was a warming trend through the day. Temps were already well into double figures in the south and west but where it remained clear throughout the night in the east, there was a severe frost, particularly for the east Highlands where the morning started off at -8.4C in Aboyne.

Interestingly during the afternoon, Achnagart rose to 13.6C making it the UK warm spot. Most of the UK was sitting at between 7 and 10C by 6pm Christmas Day. Boxing Day morning sure was mild. I started the day with +8C on my dash at 4.30am. Quite the contrast to last Boxing Day.

Last Christmas Day saw the 2nd warmest, a late white Christmas and gale-force winds.

However, it was a very different story on Christmas day 2010.

So, what can we expect as we say goodbye to Christmas and await New Year 2019. High pressure shall remain dominant over the near continent, helping shield Atlantic weather northward and drawing mild air up over the UK. Weather systems riding the north and west flank of this high will bring breezier, wetter conditions to Scotland, Northern Ireland and N England at times but drier and brighter weather shall prevail for much of central and southern England and Wales. Where clear and winds light, expect overnight frosts and extensive fog patches.

The below GFS surface/precip charts shows this stagnant pattern well.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

The CFSv2 shows a highly anomalous ridge parked over the UK through the next 7 days.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Was last weekend’s low level fog an omen of what’s ahead?

To conclude, I just wanted to share this with you. The weather has certainly been tame up until now. Nothing extreme. The jet stream just won’t pick up this year so storminess is not likely in the foreseeable future but what’s interesting is the recent low level inversion layer over Glasgow.

This beautiful shot was captured by Iain Cameron back on December 22 in the Campsies.

Credit: Iain Cameron

It reminded me of this which I captured at the same spot and within a week of each other back in 2009.

My point is that the past autumn was very similar to 2009 and just days after my photo was taken of the same setup as we had just days ago, we commenced the worst spell of winter since 1978-79. Could Iain’s photo capturing the exact same setup be an omen of what’s ahead in January? Afterall we almost have the same setup locally and globally as back then…

Featured image: Iain Cameron

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