Many a cold winter including 2009-10 saw a VERY wet November into December like we’re seeing now!

Written by on December 7, 2018 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

The wet pattern continues for much of the UK with the Atlantic still firmly in charge as forecasted. This soggy pattern looks likely to remain from now up until Christmas, what happens after that remains to be seen.

As you’re probably aware by now, I have called for colder late December onwards and the models continue to show high latitude blocking caused by a weakening/displacement of the PV late month. This would very very similar to past years which started mild and wet and turned very cold.

I find this wet pattern interesting. I always recall Joe Bastardi of Weatherbell saying, ‘sometimes, where it’s wettest in autumn, it’s coldest later on that winter’.

When looking back at our coldest winters of recent times (2009/2010), they were proceeded by very wet Novembers. November 2010 turned bitter but the October and start of November saw flooding rains. In 2009, November was record wet and we seen an abrupt shift during the 2nd half of December to much colder.

We have a similarly wet pattern currently with flooding an issue in parts but given the type of El Nino in place, low solar, N Atlantic SST’s and model outputs both short and long term, I can’t help but feel we’re going to turn this pattern on it’s head around Christmas if not the New Year, especially given the weak, flexing nature of the polar vortex and model projection over the next few weeks. Flood to freeze is very possible. Remember, I said much of December could be uneventful with mild and wet ruling but a turn to much colder late month.

CFSv2 keeps us wetter than normal through Christmas.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

The latest GFS at the end of the 384 hour run suggests a possible SSWE underway between Christmas and New Year.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

If this was to be the case then we’d have a very interesting January ahead…

Even before then, the PV looks to be under significant stress which could already be forcing strong high latitude blocking and the southward dislodge of polar air into the mid latitudes.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Check out the latest GFS 500mb height anomaly for Christmas Eve…

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Before any potential cold around Christmas, expect much of the same with more wet and windy conditions as polar air regroups and reloads over the pole.

Of course we do not know for sure whether the above will in fact occur. Many a year we’ve seen these polar vortex teases but it never comes to anything. Only time will tell the story.

One other interesting thing to note.. The jet stream appears to not get too strong. In past winters when storminess and mild has ruled, the jet stream has often been very strong. This year, it’s average to below average in strength for the time of year and that’s promising to see if you wish for cold!

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