As we commence December and meteorological winter 18-19 tomorrow, the next surge of arctic air looks set to drill down the eastern side of North America early next week. This in turn will strengthen our predominantly zonal Atlantic jet thanks to the NAO going back neutral which means don’t expect an end to this wet, windy, turbulent spell anytime soon. Initially I thought unsettled and not stormy in the longer term but now it’s looking rather stormy through next week and possibly the next.
Note the below 850mb temp chart and the southward push of arctic air over the US. As this polar plunge descends south, so warm tropical air lifts north which aids storm formation.
Credit: wxcharts.eu
Credit: wxcharts.eu
This tightens the thermal gradient between tropics and mid latitudes over the Atlantic too and fuels a faster and enhances the development of cylogenesis and rapid cyclogenesis.
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
One low after the next… Polar air entrainment could support colder, even snowy conditions to parts of the UK next week…
Credit: wxcharts.eu
Polar vortex leans towards UK aiding +NAO, so pattern change is unlikely anytime soon!
As stated previously, with the polar vortex core leaning towards the UK, this tends to favour a +NAO with low heights south and east of Greenland and Iceland.
With the NAO projected to go well into positive territory, this more active Atlantic pattern looks unlikely to change anytime soon and by that I mean at least the next 2 weeks.
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