Same low hits twice this week & Atlantic pattern likely continues through at least 1st 10 days of December

Written by on November 28, 2018 in Rest of Europe, United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Wind and rain is in firm control of our weather to end November and commence December. Lot’s of ‘cold talk’ of late and wishcasting but with the NAO going positive and polar vortex core leaning towards Greenland/Scandinavia, there’s no sign of anything other than an Atlantic pattern for NW Europe through the next 10 days and likely the first 10 days of December. Cold interludes on the rear of departing lows CAN bring snow though, keep that in mind…

Hello again to the mild but also moist southwest flow… Flooding shall make a return as warm air contains more moisture.

I understand that the stratosphere is not driving the troposphere currently but the current and projected 10mb temps promotes a stronger Icelandic trough/Azores high setup.

Strangely enough…

 

More often than not, the below strat profile and +NAO projection equates to this.

When putting together my winter forecast back at the end of October, it’s like I drew these multi-model charts below for the start of December. The one constant below is the Iceland low and Iberia high.

Credit: Chorley Weather

The deep low to our NW today has delivered as expected with it’s coastal/high ground gales along with spells of heavy rain.

Today’s peak gust of 90 mph at Capel Curig, 112 mph over Cairngorm and 100 mph over Great Dun Fell thus far is pretty run of the mill for the depth and position of the low and time of year. Nothing worth writing home about. So while we can’t hype cold, let’s not hype the storm!

Interestingly this low will bring two spells of gales and heavy rain over the next 48 hours as it rotates N, W then back E and as it does so the models have it deepening. So the secondary spell of wetter and windier could be worse Friday, particularly Scotland and Northern Ireland where gales shall blow through the Central Lowlands at 50-70 mph.

Today

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Friday

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Note the our low is deeper by Friday than today according to GFS.

While mild at 12-15C UK-wide today, there’s an increased thermal gradient by Friday with the north in polar maritime air while south remains in subtropical maritime air. Could see high level snow for Scotland, possibly N Ireland and N England.

So, wind and rain is the rule through the rest of this week and weekend with a more southerly tracked low crossing S Britain Saturday.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Then into next we have a few windows in which higher pressure will bring spells of settled but overall our pattern looks changeable and west or southwest driven.

One other factor I wish to mention is all this wet weather we’re seeing now, I wonder if we’ll eventually flip from flood to freeze like we did in 2009 and 2010. The current outlook may appear to above may be the worst for a cold and snow lover BUT remember that I have a colder forecast ahead and stand by that. Thankfully this doesn’t look like 2013 where the Atlantic was set to fire one intense low after another at us.

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